The Iron Age 1945-08-23: Vol 156 Iss 8

VAN DEVENTER President and Editorial Director BAUR Vice-President General Manager LEONARD Assistant General Manager HAYES Advertising Manager JOHNSON, Reader Service and Market Research BAUR, Production Manager Cleary, Technical Research and Promotion Manager ° ° ° Executive Offices Chestnut and Sts. Philadelphia 39, U.S.A.- Editorial and Advertising Offices 100 42nd St., New York 17, N.Y., Regional Business Managers New York New York 100 East 42nd St. 100 East 42nd ROBERT BLAIR GIBBS Cleveland Pittsburgh 1016 Guardian 428 Park Bidg. Philadelphia Chicago Chilton Bidg. 1134 Bidg. PEIRCE LEWIS WARREN Detroit Hartford Conn. RAYMOND KAY Los Angeles 2420 Cheremoya Ave. Owned and Published CHILTON COMPANY (Incorporated) OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS MUSSELMAN, JOS. HILDRETH, GEORGE GRIFFITHS ice-President EVERIT TERHUNE Vice-President VAN DEVENTER Vice-President BAUR Vice-President JULIAN CHASE Vice-President WILLIAM BARBER, Treasurer JOHN BLAIR MOFFETT, Secretary BUZBY HARRY DUFFY THOMAS KANE CHARLES HEALE WILLIAM VALLAR, Asst. Treas. Member, Audit Bureau Circulation the Industrial Arts Pub- lished every Thursday. Subscription Price North America, South America and Possessions, $8; Foreign, $15 year. Single Copy, cents. ° ° Vol. 156, No. IRON AGE Editorial What Does Cost?—That’s the Answer Technical Articles Industry Estimates 1947 Markets Roller Attachment for Shear Prevents Scratches Automotive Bolts Welding Job Prevents Steel Mill Shutdown Permeable Refractories Furnace Construction Production Work Jig Borers Precision Founding (Part New Equipment Features News Front Assembly Line Washington West Coast Personals and Dear Editor This Industrial Week News Industry News and Markets Atomic Bomb Little Steel Formula Officially Ended DPC Standby Plants Navy Cutbacks Reach Pittsburgh Mills Double Jap Output National Radiator Announces Veterans Program Machine Tool Market Developments Nonferrous Metals News and Prices Iron and Steel Scrap News and Prices Comparison Prices Week and Year Finished and Semi-Finished Steel Prices Warehouse and Steel Prices Iron and Steel Pipe and Tubing Prices Exceptions Steel Price Schedule Pig Iron and Coke Prices Bolts and Nut Prices Stainless Steel and Ferroalloy Prices Index Advertisers August 23, 1945 102 107 112 117 119 120 126 140 144 146-7 148-9 150 152-3 154 155 156-7 158 159 160 230 5 70 82 Member, Associated Business Papers 3 2 Per Where Get the Steel You Need—The thou- sands kinds, shapes and sizes steel eleven Ryerson Steel-Service plants are still the largest, most complete stocks available anywhere. This means that, despite shortages some sizes, you can more certain getting the steel you need from Ryerson. Technical Service—For more than 100 years Ryerson has supplied steel from stock. During that period Ryerson technical men have gained much practical experience problems steel selection and fabrication. Experience that makes Ryerson technical real value. yours for the asking. Things Know About Steel Fast, Accurate Preparation—Ryerson saves you time and expense—prepares steel your exact specifications with modern, precision equip- ment. Facilities include high-speed hack saws and shears, batteries flame cutters, punches— everything needed cut steel the size and shape you need the shortest possible time. Prompt Delivery— Whether you need single piece steel many tons get prompt action from the nearest Ryerson plant. Phone, wire, write for any steel requirement. And you not have copy our latest Stock List and Steel Data Book, pleased send one. PRODUCTS RYERSON STOCK INCLUDE: Sheets and kinds including plain, Tubing—Seamless Steel. galvanized, corrugated for roofing, siding, Boiler and Fittings. Steel Bars, Mild Steel, Alloy and Stainless— Rounds, Squares, Flats, Rolled and Cold Finished—Shafting, etc. Structural Steel including Beams, Concrete Reinforcing Bars, Wire Mesh nels, Tees, Zees. and allied building materials. Sheets, Plates, Strip, Tubing, etc. Alloy Steels, Steels. Welding Rod, Babbitt, Solder. Bolts, Nuts, Washers, Rivets, etc. Metal Working Machinery and Tools. Inland 4-way floor plate and stair treads for safety, rigidity and long life. JOSEPH RYERSON SON, INC., Steel-Service Plants: Chicago, Detroit, St. Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Buffalo, New York, Boston. } Regi | | 4 | | S4—THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 ESTABLISHED 1855 August 23, 1945 VAN DEVENTER President and Director BAUR Vice-President and General Manager ° ° Editorial Commercial CAMPBELL Machine Tool LINSLEY News Editor JACK HIGHT Associate Editors WINTERS ALBIN JOHN ANTHONY BARMASEL Editorial O'CONNOR MILLER Regional News and Technical Editors LLOYD Pittsburgh 428 Park Bidg. POST Chicago 1134 Bidg. EUGENE HARDY ANSBORO Washington National Press Bidg. LLOYD Cleveland 1016 Guardian Bidg. BRAMS Detroit 7310 Woodward Ave. OSGOOD MURDOCK WORTH HALE Francisco 1355 Market ROBERT Cincinnati DEAN Buffalo FRAZAR Boston HUGH SHARP Milwaukee SANDERSON Toronto, Ont. RAYMOND KAY Angeles JOHN McCUNE Birmingham ROY EDMONDS St. JAMES DOUGLAS Seattle What Does That's the Answer OWER. That’s strong word. can applied armies, navies and air forces war, but peace means petroleum, waterfalls and coal. the present moment, the whole world aroused the thought atomic power. One teaspoonful water any other substance liberally provided nature, theoretically gives enough heat keep warm over cold winter enough power drive our automobiles around the world. day after tomorrow, are going step into new world which all the hard and arduous tasks will performed disjointed atoms and humans will just sit around and take life easy. Pleasant prospect, not? But you believe that, you will believe anything. Especially it’s print. not often venture into predictions, but will make this one. None you who are over fifty years age will live see atomic energy make serious inroads into the generation power presently known means. The situation reminds the Arabian Nights story the bottled genie. You fished bottle out the sea, found was full smoke instead prewar Scotch and pulled the cork. And out came gigantic genie who gave you three wishes. Naturally, you wished for splendid palace with oil heat and running hot and cold water and beautiful princess harem, depending upon your marital state ‘and religious convictions. Next for good black market tenderloin steak and finally for ten million dollars the equiva- lent Arabic. But having exhausted your three wishes, back came the genie cloud fire and pillar smoke and what did you, your palace and your bank account was nobody’s business. with this new discovery release atomic energy. Re- lease power much easier than the control it. Fortunately for there have been fatalities far connected with its development, which tribute our scientists and engineers who took part its development. But the precautions taken must have been staggering the imagination. The disassociation atoms the method now em- ployed, for example, involve, much more elaborate scale, those for protection against the cancer implanting power the ray. Then, addition, there the small matter cost. far, know two atomic bombs, produced cost two billion dollars. Smash- ing the atom not new; has been done before repeatedly, but always the energy gained thereby has been infinitesimal comparison the energy, effort and time devoted accomplish the result. not mean say that are not the threshold new era power production. That may well be. But who can measure the distance from threshold living room such situation? far revolution power development concerned, would personally put money the gas turbine ahead the atom smasher. f SCHIEN 4 ce Special Steel for Every Purpose Inland research and product development have more than kept pace with demands for better flat rolled steel products. They have consistently anticipated manufacturers’ needs —giving them infinite variety steels that fully meet the requirements modern design and manufacturing methods. There are Inland hot rolled sheets and strip, and cold rolled sheets and strip, that can easily formed, deep drawn, spun, welded, and beautifully finished—steels that make stronger, more durable and more attractive products. Inland specialists are ready help you select the right steel for war products and for products you plan make after the war. They are highly skilled the making spe- cial steels for every particular purpose. They are thoroughly grounded shop methods, and consumer needs and desires. You are invited take advantage their services. Floor Plate Piling Plates Rails Reinforcing Bars Sheets Strip PARTIAL LIST INLAND FLAT ROLLED PRODUCTS Hot rolled strip Hot rolled sheets Deoxidized sheets Pickled sheets Electrical sheets Blued Stovepipe stock Cold strip Cold sheets Ti-Namel sheets Galvanized sheets Commercial Tite coated Form-cote sheets Extra heavy coated Paint-Tite sheets alloy sheets Copper alloy sheets Tin plate, hot dipped and electrolytic Manufacturing terne plate Tin mill black plete Tin Plate Accessories INLAND STEEL COMPANY Dearborn St., Chicago Ill. HELP WITH WAR BOND The ontra Lo: ards lumin rol echar eport orts the ures j News Front August 1945 Delays notification cancellations subcontractors are already the criticism Detroit. Tool and die shops, key auto production, are among thd The great number RFC warehouses for storage surplus material and have constructed faster and larger number handle the flood being moved from plants. The whole surplus storage and disposal problem pretty discouraging shape optimistic bromides from officials charge. First there tally what being stored, many the crates are and all kinds stand the way scrapping material view the possibility someday finding use for particular Everyone has thought using bomber fuselages for lunch wagons. The trouble hat one buys any the thousands fuselages. for many other items, already more than equal likely end-scrap return, and many items are being from warehouse warehouse the theory that kicked around enough may disappear. warehouses are now crammed that doubtful whether accurate the contents ever will possible. immediate cancellation 500,000 tons plate Geneva planned for the that plant heavy blow. Now operating are two furnaces, three open hearths, bout half the coke ovens. The original plan for the Utah mill called for continued standby operation for least eight months after the end the war. Engineering plans for the $25,000,000 expansion Columbia Steel Co., alif., are now complete. Conflicting reports are heard the status bids. The Steel Corp. eastern plant will probably built New Jersey, and blast furnaces, open hearths, tin plate, bar, shape and sheet capacity. Gar Wood Industries, Inc., now plans build plant the San Francisco Bay complete within months for the production sizable line ontractors' equipment. Los Angeles estimates layoffs the near future run high 200,000. ards and aircraft plants are already beginning the mass exodus workers. roller attachment for shears, developed the Westinghouse Appliance ecreases production costs and eliminates scratches during the cutting large luminum sheets. The roller attached the top blade that positioned 1/16 in. bottom blade when former the position. This allows the aluminum sheet rolled over the bottom blade without scratching it. The ferreting out German technical information has involved many hundreds off merican engineers and millions dollars. Their reports are all coming through fficial channels marked secret. Since the Army has practically intelligent echanism release information some bored sergeant automatically marks "secret", eports are piling Washington and are use anyone, either big About ten years from now, when one cares, the Army likely release the orts for want something else do. Naturally there will considerable fanfa the Corps Press Agents that time. The use permeable refractories furnace construction allows for more rapid temperature resulting less fuel being required for initial heating experiments reveal. addition, fuel consumption reduced after equilibrium conditions have eached; temperature more evenly distributed due the avoidance streams flue ports and the elimination dead spaces corners, and high ures are attained with greater ease. — f | 4 q purpose this latest CED study has been foreshadow, far possible, the size the market for manufactured goods the first full postwar year after recon- version. this end more than 1500 manufacturers and manufacturers’ trade associations have made fore- casts postwar markets their various industries. CED has com- bined all these forecasts into one fore- cast for all manufacturing industry, and has the basis this forecast and other data, developed indications for the same early postwar year, of: (1) The probable level manu- facturing employment. (2) The level employment the might along with such level activity manufac- tures. The job bringing this picture to- gether was one for technicians the field business forecasting. David Prince, vice-president the Gen- eral Electric Co., and vice-chairman CED’s Field Development Div., brought together more than the country’s leading market research ex- perts and business economists, and the task was entrusted them. The Marketing Committee’s job was not the forecasting but get business it, and put together and interpret the result. The market appraisal thus composite view postwar markets for manu- factured goods American manu- facturers themselves. The opinions the significance this view, far the level postwar employ- ment concerned, are those the Marketing This study certainly suggests very strongly that, the aggregate judg- ment the manufacturing interests who cooperated with CED correct, 1947 may well year high-level production, sales and employment. this basis, how optimistic should American business plans for 1947? Should assume that the indicated level will materialize? IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 CED’s opinion that any busi- ness man will make great mistake assumes that this high level vusiness activity sure materialize. should continue make his own mind about what going happen, just has always done. should not succumb this case, any more than should any other, the temptation let someone else his thinking for him. But the CED does think—and this proposition can hardly stated too strongly—that the should take heart from this stirring expression optimism repre- sentative cross-section American manufacturing industry. The picture given this study for single year. picture for the first year the second postwar period. Each subsequent year will bring its own special set condi- tions and problems. However, seems clear that there will number years the sec- ond postwar period—the catching-up- with-deferred-demand-period and that general this should rela- ‘tively good period whole the present study reliable guide the first those years. After the war the American economy going have produce, and far greater volume goods and services than has ever before produced and sold year peace. are jobs for the great majority Americans who will able and willing work. considering this challenge these facts are important: (1) The has never had sub- stantially full employment since 1929, except wartime. (2) the last more-or-less-normal peacetime year, there were about 8,900,000 ployed out labor force 54,100,000 16.4 pct. (3) Between 1931 and 1940 the smallest percentage unem- ployment total labor force was about 13.8 pct, 1937. rise, despite temporary de- During the years since 1929 pro- ductivity per employed person has cline during the early thirties. wartime great scientific strides have been made, and many these will ultimately reflected sharp postwar rise productivity, particularly manufacturing. This situation, when develops, will ac- centuate the problem that was already acute before the 1947 Selected for Study The second postwar period, the catching-up-with-accumulated-demand period, has been the one selected for analysis. The year which has been selected within that period the first full postwar year after substantial element industrial reconversion shall have taken place. The year which has been arbitrarily defined that way for the purposes the study 1947. was desired find out how nearly the will able ap- proach, satisfactory solu- tion the problem employment? This course raises the collateral question: How many persons should employed that year? Ordinarily the labor force has in- creased recent years the rate somewhat more than half million persons year, primarily result population increase. The labor force actively dynamic that can un- der special conditions rather sharp- expanded contracted. sharp abnormal expansion has occurred dur- ing the war. The young have left school work enter the armed services, the old have postponed re- tirement begun work again, and abnormal proportion women have worked outside the home. 1929 the labor force included number had been expanded 54,- 106,000, average annual expansion about 600,000. Yet 1944, under the impetus war, the labor force numbered 64,010,000. the three- year period from 1941 1944 had pers fore cons and fect ties tenc the ties tion Opi pla 194 hov the whi fro hig vie the lov fer | — Tot expanded more than 8,000,000 persons. determine the size the labor force 1947, necessary first consider what the 1947 ferce would have normally been, without war, and then judge the probable ef- fects such factors war casual- ties and wartime acceleration the tendency women work outside the home. Opinions number authori- ties the size the labor force 1947 vary between 58.2 million and million. tion how many persons will the armed forces that year. Opinions here differ the amount demobilization that can have taken place, even when the war assumed have finally ended well before 1947. The range informed view seems from 2.0 million 4.0 million the armed forces 1947. Finally, there the question how many persons would constitute the permissible civilian “labor float,” which say, persons engaged moving from job job otherwise unavoidably unemployed. The range responsible view this perhaps from low figure 1.5 million high 4.0 million. The CED has given consideration these matters, and has selected view all the evidence what seem reasonable assumptions re- garding the size the labor force, the size the armed forces and the permissible “labor float.” These assumptions be- low, along with the minimum and maximum assumptions previously re- ferred to: Millions) 947 Markets This appraisal CED, composite view postwar markets for manufactured goods American manufacturers looks for excellent first postwar year for both business and em- ployment. Certain ifs, ands and buts lead less encouraging possi- bilities but the probabilities are such urge business expansion. summary, then, the 1947 em- ployment goal may visualized follows: Goal for 1947 (Millions) Increase, Pet The CED study the year 1947 has been devoted measuring, far this can done the basis detailed study manufacturing, probable accomplishment 1947 against the goal. Market Estimate Made First The principal element this study composite estimate, forecast, American manufacturing industry its markets the postwar year 1947. was felt that the people best qualified the job were those most familiar with the and problems involved—the manufacturers themselves. The manufacturers were not mak- ing estimates for their individual companies. They were exactly what the trade associations who co- operated with the CED were do: that is, produce forecasts for their industries. These forecasts were represent the amount business the estimators thought would actually materialize their respective indus- tries. The only assumption which was necessarily common all the estimates was the very arbitrary one that 1947 would the first full post- war year and that that year very substantial element the industrial reconversion would have been com- pleted. The forecasts general are very good the opinion CED. However, they were made under most difficult for the forecaster. They were long-range forecasts, which unusual busi- ness practice, and there were un- usual number unknown and in- tangible factors. Nevertheless, must remem- bered that these estimates were made men who have over the years successfully coped with their problems, and who know their industries. urgently pointed out that the indi- vidual manufacturer other busi- nessman interested any one line manufacture should not take the forecast presented for that industry his guide without doing work his own reinforce disprove it. the individual industries the forecasts may extremely Indeed, that course our hope, But they are not intended ac- cepted blindly. The safest course use the estimate any one line the basis for further work. The aggregate value manufac- tures the year 1939, which may taken the last more-or-less-normal pre-war year, was $56,843 millions, according the Census Manufac- tures taken that year. The aggregate forecast manu- factures the hypothetical postwar year 1947, with which this study $80,515.0 millions, the general price level 1939. This in- crease 41.6 pet. between the non-durable goods industries and the durable industries, the picture de- tailed Table Table shows part the aggre- gate estimate broken down into the manufacturing groups primary in- terest the metalworking industry. THE IRON AGE, August 23, in- eft re- len led CED's his Best der Armed 4.0 2.0 3.5 purpose this latest CED study has been foreshadow, far possible, the size the market for manufactured goods the first full postwar year after recon- version. this end more than 1500 manufacturers and manufacturers’ trade associations have made fore- casts postwar markets their various industries. CED has com- bined all these forecasts into one fore- cast for all manufacturing industry, and has the basis this forecast and other data, developed indications for the same early postwar year, of: (1) The probable level manu- facturing employment. (2) The level employment the might along with such level activity manufac- tures. The job bringing this picture to- gether was one for technicians the field business forecasting. David Prince, vice-president the Gen- eral Electric Co., and vice-chairman CED’s Field Development Div., brought together more than the country’s leading market research ex- perts and business economists, and the task was entrusted them. The Marketing Committee’s job was not the forecasting but get American business it, and put together and interpret the result. The market appraisal thus composite view postwar markets for manu- factured goods American manu- facturers themselves. The opinions the significance this view, far the level postwar employ- ment concerned, are those the Marketing Committee. This study certainly suggests very strongly that, the aggregate judg- ment the manufacturing interests who cooperated with CED correct, 1947 may well year high-level production, sales and employment. this basis, how optimistic should American business plans for 1947? Should assume that the indicated level will materialize? IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 CED’s opinion that any busi- ness man will make great mistake assumes that this high level vusiness activity sure materialize. should continue make his own mind about what going happen, just has always done. should not succumb this case, any more than should any other, the temptation let someone else his thinking for him. But the CED does think—and this proposition can hardly stated too strongly—that the businessman should take heart from this stirring expression optimism repre- sentative cross-section American manufacturing industry. The picture given this study for single year. picture for the first year the second postwar period. Each subsequent year will bring its own special set condi- tions and problems. However, seems clear that there will number years the sec- ond postwar period—the catching-up- with-deferred-demand-period and that general this should rela- ‘tively good period whole the present study reliable guide the first those years. After the war the American economy going have produce, and sell, far greater volume goods and services than has ever before produced and sold year peace. are jobs for the great majority Americans who will able and willing work. considering this challenge these facts are important: (1) The has never had sub- stantially full employment since 1929, except wartime. (2) the last more-or-less-normal peacetime year, there were about 8,900,000 unem- ployed out labor force 54,100,000 16.4 (3) Between 1931 and 1940 the smallest percentage unem- ployment total labor force was about 13.8 pct, 1937. During the years since 1929 pro- ductivity per employed person has tended rise, despite temporary de- cline during the early thirties. wartime great scientific strides have been made, and many these will ultimately reflected sharp postwar rise productivity, particularly manufacturing. This situation, when develops, will ac- centuate the problem that was already acute before the war. 1947 Selected for Study The second postwar period, the catching-up-with-accumulated-demand period, has been the one selected for analysis. The year which has been selected within that period the first full postwar year after substantial element industrial reconversion shall have taken place. The year which has been arbitrarily defined that way for the purposes the study was desired find out how nearly the will able ap- proach, in.1947, solu- tion the problem employment? This course raises the collateral question: How many persons should employed that year? Ordinarily the labor force has in- creased recent years the rate somewhat more than half million persons year, primarily result population increase. The labor force actively dynamic that can un- der special conditions rather sharp- expanded contracted. sharp abnormal expansion has occurred dur- ing the war. The young have left school work enter the armed services, the old have postponed re- tirement begun work again, and abnormal proportion women have worked outside the home. 1929 the labor force included number had been expanded 106,000, average annual expansion about 600,000. Yet 1944, under the impetus war, the labor force numbered 64,010,000. the three- year period from 1941 1944 had fore cons have and fect: ties tend the ties tion Opi plac 194 seer mill how the whi hig gar the per low fer Arm Nee expanded more than persons. determine the size the labor force 1947, necessary first consider what the 1947 ferce would have normally been, without war, and then judge the probable ef- such factors war casual- ties and wartime acceleration the tendency women work outside the home. Opinions number authori- ties the size the labor force 1947 vary between 58.2 million and million. tion how many persons will the armed forces that year. Opinions here differ the amount demobilization that can have taken place, even when the war assumed have finally ended well before 1947. The range informed view seems from 2.0 million 4.0 million the armed forces 1947. Finally, there the question how many persons would constitute the permissible civilian “labor float,” which say, persons engaged moving from job job otherwise unavoidably unemployed. The range responsible view this perhaps from low figure 1.5 million high 4.0 million. The CED has given consideration these matters, and has selected view all the evidence what seem reasonable assumptions re- garding the size the labor force, the size the armed forces and the permissible “labor float.” These assumptions are. shown be- low, along with the minimum and maximum assumptions previously re- ferred to: (In Millions) labor Needed civilian 54.0 This appraisal CED, composite view postwar markets for manufactured goods American manufacturers themselves, looks for excellent first postwar year for both business and em- ployment. Certain ifs, ands and buts lead less encouraging possi- bilities but the probabilities are such urge business expansion. summary, then, the 1947 em- ployment goal may visualized follows: Goal for 1939 1947 Increase, (Millions) (Millions) The CED study the year 1947 has been devoted measuring, far this can done the basis detailed study manufacturing, probable accomplishment against the goal. Market Estimate Made First The principal element this study composite estimate, forecast, American manufacturing industry its markets the postwar year 1947. was felt that the people best qualified the job were those most familiar with the and problems involved—the manufacturers The manufacturers were not mak- ing estimates for their individual companies. They were exactly what the trade associations who co- operated with the CED were do: that is, produce forecasts for their industries. These forecasts were represent the amount business the estimators thought would actually materialize their respective indus- tries. The only assumption which was necessarily common all the estimates was the very arbitrary one that 1947 would the first full post- war year and that that year very substantial element the industrial reconversion would have been com- pleted. The forecasts general are very good the opinion CED. However, they were made under most difficult for the forecaster. They were long-range forecasts, which unusual busi- ness practice, and there were un- usual number unknown and in- tangible factors. Nevertheless, must remem- bered that these estimates were made businessmen—by men who have over the years successfully coped with their problems, and who know their urgently pointed out that the indi- vidual manufacturer other busi- nessman interested any one line manufacture should not take the forecast presented for that industry his guide without doing work his own reinforce disprove it. the individual industries the forecasts may extremely Indeed, that course our hope. But they are not intended ac- cepted blindly. The safest course use the estimate any one line the basis for further work. The aggregate value manufac- tures the year 1939, which may taken the last more-or-less-normal pre-war year, was $56,843 millions, according the Census Manufac- tures taken that year. The aggregate forecast manu- factures the hypothetical postwar year 1947, with which this study deals, $80,515.0 millions, the general price level 1939. This in- crease 41.6 between the non-durable goods industries and the durable industries, the picture de- tailed Table Table shows part the aggre- gate estimate broken down into the manufacturing groups primary in- terest the metalworking industry. THE IRON AGE, August 23, alt eft re- len led his Best jon Thus, shown that American N translated into the manufactur- | reasonable judgment made ing employment itself very diffi- vilian employment the economy eee clo volve large areas conjecture and made. same. facturing worker 1939? This point } AFA = tion that productivity per manhour manufacturing has been rising steadi- nN and immediately after the last war Apparently 1941 was the high point manhour productivity, with de- 60—THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 indu vilia tion: back war will Son Bias Stee Gra Mal Cas Tin Nai Cut Sav Ste | 4 erease each year since then those industries which have continued ci- vilian goods production. The indica- tions are that 1944 may have dropped back the 1940 level even lower. looking the period after the war, students this problem dis- agree whether the prewar trend will eventually reassert itself not. Some people expect productivity increase after the war “geometrically” (that is, with rate in- crease), and the prewar rate. Others think that before the war there were already signs that the rate increase was slackening. Some people think the war has taught such great productive lessons that, after period learning put wartime improvements work peacetime goods, productivity per manhour will catch up, and great would have been there had been war. But one—so far CED knows —thinks present that the post- war year 1947 will the country able accomplish anything like And the big question under considera- tion is: What will have happened productivity per manhour manu- facturing The judgment CED that TABLE How Industry Estimates Metals Industry Markets 1947 IRON AND STEEL AND THEIR PRODUCTS, EXCEPT MACHINERY ELECTRIC Value Manufactures Value Manufactures the 1939 Price Level the 1939 Price Industry Estimated Industry Estimated Estimated 1947 Estimated 1947 716.0 30.0% Generating, distribution, and industrial apparatus, and works and rolling 3,680.5 35.3 apparatus for incorporation manufactured Gray-iron and castings..................... 291.8 39.2 not elsewhere 470.5 787.3 67.3 219.9 62.3 insulated wire and 120.4 168.0 39.5 Cast-iron pipe and 91.2 40.1 Automotive electrical equipment 108.8 32.3 Tin cans and other tinware not elsewhere 372.8 Electric lamps. 123.2 45.3 Wire drawn from 176.5 223.1 Radios, radio tubes, and 499.9 Nails, spikes, not made wire mills Communication equipment............... 191.3 operated connection with rolling 12.9 11.6 Batteries, storage and primary (dry and 117.6 Wirework not elsewhere 203.0 27.8 ray and therapeutic apparatus and electronic 17.8 26.7 (except aluminum, silver and plated cutlery) Electrical products 39.0 40.3 Tools (except edge tools, machine tools, files and saws) 75.3 30.0 Total Electrical Machinery............ ardware not elsewhere classified.................... sanitary ware and MACHINERY, EXCEPT ELECTRICAL supplies (not including pipe and vitreous and semi- Steam engines, turbines, and water 24.8 36.3 burners, domestic and 18.5 32.7 76.8 254.0 36.8 71.9 Steam and hot-water heating apparatus hot- Construction and similar machinery (except mining and Stoves, ranges, water heaters and hot-air furnaces machinery and 89.0 and apparatus, except not and other working machinery 20.3 38.6 90.1 sories, and shaping tools, and 478 62.8 31.4 precision 125.6 190.1 Stamped and pressed products (except automobile Metalworking machinery and equipment, not elsewhere Fabricated structural and ornamental metal work, Food-products 90.8 147.7 Doors, window sash, frames, and trim (made Printing-trades 55.6 108.5 96.9 Bolts, nuts, washers, and rivets—made plants not Measuring and dispensing 20.5 Forgings, iron and not operated Elevators, escalators, and 64.1 connection with 104.9 164.8 57.1 Cars and trucks, industrial 17.3 104.0 products and wood exhaust and ventilating 28.6 44.2 54.5 bars made plants not operated connection with Mechanical power-transmission 56.3 50.5 ffice and store machines not elsewhere classified 50. 202. Total and Steel and Their Products, Except Vend ted hin 23.1 110.8 NONFERROUS METALS AND THEIR PRODUCTS Refrigerators, domestic (mechanical and absorption), not elsewhere MOBIL PMEN Clocks, watches, and materials and parts (except watch- Silverware and plated ware.......................... 62.8 127.1 102.4 sories Lighting 26.6 Automobile trailers (for attachment passenger 10.1 27.8 Nonferrous metal foundries (except 55.6 31.1 Aluminumware, kitchen, hospital, and household (except Total Automobiles and Automobile Equipment..... 67.7% uminum products ing rolling draw metal products not elsewhere classifie Locomotives (including frames) and parts; railroad, Total Nonferrous Metals and Their 710.1 44.2% Aircraft and parts, aircraft 279.5 97.8 Boatbuilding and repairing Carbon products for the electrical industry. Transportation Equipment, Except Automobiles 882.9 74.3 factures carbon artificial graphite 18.4 51.1 THE IRON AGE, August 23, i | t = - - ron = ORD ~ oe a a. - = - ~ ss ¢ a 62—THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 38,698 51,780 39,728 52,410 38,447 52,110 35,668 49,090 31,784 46,397 30,354 44,884 30,627 45,254 26,599 41,186 10,215 23,060 37,517 26,125 12,629 41,099 31,149 46,304 53,500 Total civilian employment. 56,000 840 52,620 11,380 64,010 1,070 53,480 8,853 7,669 5,010 2,380 54,066 54,100 54,490 §3,737 7,269 52,523 7,905 49,004 1,494 47,798 Unemployment.......... 60,146 Total labor force........ 59,500 8,980 62,460 3,940 1,630 55,730 535 260 252 269 322 369 50,398 51,670 52,845 54,106 54,601 49,264 262 48,060 Armed ates the Bureau Labor Statistics the Department Labor and estimates the Bureau the Census the Department Commerce. Note: the total non-agricultural employees and total civilian employment accounted for employment, self-employment and adjustment for dupli- cation and *Theoretical first full postwar year. Projection employment CED based estimate manufacturing volume industry. 1945 output per manhour manu- facturing will have dropped nearly the level 1939. The feeling that 1946 will see productivity about the 1945 level. 1947 the first postwar year, assumed the es- timators who aided this study, believed that output per manhour manufacturing that year will increase above the 1945-46 level and will about above the 1989 level. There next the question work hours considered. Here the study even more unsteady ground. Will manufacturing work- ers put in, “on the average,” more fewer work hours 1947 than 1939, about the same? Perhaps good judgment any that the hours will just about what they were anything they might little lower. Assuming change work hours, then, but assuming pct increase output per manhour over 1939, the following obtained: Annual Output Per Mfg. Employee Year (At 1939 Prices) $5640 this assumption realistic, and the value manufactures totals $80,515.0 millions (at 1939 prices), manufacturing 1947 would employ 13,469,000 persons, excluding the self-employed. This figure would represent in- crease 33.7 over 1939, which year 10,078,000 persons were em- ployed manufacturing, excluding the self-employed. sum up: Value manufac- tures would about pct. Em- ployment manufactures would about pet. The problem now “project” estimate for the rest the economy from the foregoing material the manufacturing segment. Peacetime ties during the period from 1929 through 1940 accounted for from pet 23.4 pct civilian employment. 1941, under economy partially converted war production, the per- centage was 26.4. rose 28.9 pct fell off 31.1. manufac- turing provided jobs for 22.5 pct the civilians employed: was the largest single component the labor fact that beginning with 1929 and until the economy began take wartime characteristics employment never reached 28.5 civilian em- ployment. true, too, that 1929, boom year, the figure was only 22.7 opinior ing more And But past ploym total emplo ment, when littl ally will vine that civil dema shoul ent plia agi na 22.7 pet. Such considerations might with considerable logic lead the opinion that 1947 the manufactur- ing employment total arrived above persons) would not more than 23.5 civilian employment. And indeed may not. But also true that this par- ticular percentage has tended the past high when total civilian em- ployment was high, and lower when total civilian employment was lower. possible project the prewar relationship between manufacturing employment and total civilian employ- ment, mathematical methods, and when this done strongly sug- gested that figure pct even little higher, may reached, especi- ally when considered that 1947 will year filling accumulated demand for manufactured goods. view everything, the CED has decided that manufacturing 1947 should perhaps assumed for pres- ent purpeses account for 25.2 pct total civilian employment. this basis, the study arrives the following: (1) persons were employed manufacturing, ex- cluding the self-employed, then (2) The total number employed civilians might about 53,- 448,000. (See Table HI.) possible argue rather con- for other conclusions than that presented the probable ratio manufacturing employment total civilian employment. How different the result would be, total civilian employment, some other ratio than 25.2 pet were accepted, can seen from the fact that change only 0.5 pet the ratio produces change, down the case may be, about one million persons the civilian employment total. the opinion CED the truth this matter may best expressed follows: (1) Starting with business’ own estimate the value manu- factures 1947 ($80,515.0 millions 1939 prices) (2) The best (and very rough) guess the attendant level total civilian employment around 53.5 millions. (3) Actually civilian employment anywhere between and million would entirely pos- sible and reasonable the value manufactures reached the indicated level. Going back the estimate how many civilian jobs would needed 1947, the following comparison (In From civilian jobs, 50.2 54.0 Projection available civilian jobs, 51.0 53.5 The needed jobs and the available jobs come into virtual balance both ends the suggested range, well the figures chosen “CED’s best guess.” Nevertheless, the table emphatically does not granting industry’s estimate the value manufactures materializes, substantially full employment in- evitable the postwar year ques- tion. Why not? (1) Because, for one thing, possible that the best estimate needed jobs 58.5 million and the best projection available jobs million. (2) And equally possible that the best estimate needed jobs 50.2 million and the best pro- jection available jobs lion. (3) Thus the possibilities could conceivably range from con- siderable amount unemploy- ment state which the number jobs would greatly exceed the number people wanting them. much for the possibilities. The probabilities are another matter. shown the right-hand column the table, CED’s best guess that the level manufacturing volume foreseen American manufacturing industry materializes, shall have substantially full employment the hypothetical postwar year 1947. this basis the CED has clear and strong foreshadowing ex- cellent first postwar year for both business and employment. Roller Attachment for Shear Prevents Scratches ROLLER attachment added shear the Westinghouse Ap- pliance Division, Mansfield, Ohio, has decreased production costs and elimi- nated during the cutting large aluminum sheets. Without this roller, three operators were required feed the sheets from table the back the op- erator the front the shear. When the sheets were fed into the shear frequently they would rub against the bottom blade causing deep scratches which made necessary polish the sheets before they could used. One operator was eliminated the back the shear and the scratches were almost entirely elimi- nated the addition the roller. After the holding plates are at- tached the machine, the roller easy mount dismantle there are only two bolts holding posi- tion. The roller attached the top blade that positioned 1/16 in. above the bottom blade when the former the “up” position. This allows the aluminum sheet rolled over the bottom blade without scratching it. THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945—63 4 r | { | . Best Guess | | Automot ive Materials for automotive bolts must combine the properties and high yield strength. oppositi Since these two properties are each other, compromise must made selecting the best functioning material. this two-part article, which this the first, the properties low and medium-carbon steels and alloy steels applied the fabrication bolts hot forming cold heading ° are discussed. ° JAMESON Works Metallurgist, International Harvester Co., Chicago. LTHOUGH recent years manu- has become rather standardized, the metallurgist still seeks further de- velopment old and new principles. Research being carried out dis- cover improvements manufacturing methods leading the production better bolt, bolt more adapted its engineering function, that fastening device. desirable that fastening de- vices have high moderate degree plasticity. Plasticity defined Jeffries “the quality virtue which substance may undergo permanent change shape without RIGHT 2—Effect carbon content the tensile prop- erties steel. BELOW temperature range. forging temperatures from Hatfield. 2600 2400 Carbon, per cent 64—THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 HOT HEADING rupture.” Plasticity desirable feature fastening device because should some unusual load applied tending disconnect the two mem- better that their severance gradual rather than sudden. This being the case, bolts are rarely made from high- carbon steel but rather from low-car- bon steel from medium-carbon steel heat treated produce moderate degree plasticity. However, plas- ticity not the only property sought for bolt, for necessary that fastening device have high yield strength that holds the connected members together firmly. un- Maximum 90,000 60000 10,000 borne mind that historic 0.38 0.89 1.20 Carbon, per cent fortunate that plasticity yield strength are mutually opposed one another that compromise must made. speaking metallurgical prin- ciples relation bolt materials background and manufacturing cost also influence the choice mate- rial. There are two methods shaping bolts, hot forming and cold forming. earlier days, the materials avail- able for bolts were limited. The method forming the heads was con- fined hot forging. The hot formed bolts were descaled and the threads were cut dies. the present day, bolts are. still hot formed for short runs the larger sizes, and where the bolts are too long cold headed automatic machines. The division be- tween cold heading and hot heading, in. diam and in. length, bolts over these dimensions being hot head- ed. machine which hot heads and rolls the threads blank one heat cycle the highest development the mechanics hot forming. materials that may hot formed; fact, all the materials used for bolts are hot formed one time another. There one controlling principle and Increase tensile strengt 0.05 020 025 Carbon, per cent that the forging temperature. The carbon content the material the primary element which governs the forging temperature range. The hot- heading temperature range shown fig. will seen from this figure that the temperature range for steels containing 0.50 pet carbon quite wide. The mechanical properties hot- formed bolts, that is, assuming that they are not heat treated after form- ing will that air cooled steel. table gives typical materials used for hot-formed bolts which are used the unheat-treated condition with their approximate tensile properties. The tensile values shown table will vary considerably depending the austenitic grain size the steel and the cooling rate after the bolts leave the header. The most obvious way increase the strength hot-formed bolt increase the carbon content. The manganese content may also in- creased. Data Edwards showing the effect increasing carbon con- tent the tensile strength steel are given fig. the carbon content increases, the tensile strength increases with cor- responding decrease the elongation and reduction area values. Data Edwards showing the effect manganese additions steels contain- ing from 0.05 0.40 pet carbon are shown fig. The addition carbon and man- ganese would cease when their addi- tion reduced the plasticity the bolts unsafe limit. practice, how- ever, the limitation would come when 8000 100 5000 Increase tensile strength, per Tensile strength 0.30 035 4—Effect Reduction area drawing ABOVE cold drawing the tensile properties 0.27 pct carbon steel. ° LEFT 3—Increase tensile strength obtained the addition manganese steels various carbon thread the bolt. should understood that the ma- jority hot-headed bolts are cut threaded the cold state. This why sulphurized steels are used for hot-headed bolts order provide for relatively easy threading. The stock for hot-headed bolts purchased hot-rolled bolt rounds which are held closer limits than regular hot rolled bars. This done insure the correct basic ma- jor diameter the thread and protect the threading dies. Cold-Formed Bolts The most popular method manu- facturing bolts the cold-head- ing process. this process the mate- rial used the form cold-drawn wire. discussion the material conveniently divided into two strength 0.17 pet carbon cold headed content. sections, low carbon and medium car- bon. Low Carbon: The advantages us- ing low-carbon steel are that the ini- tial cost the material lower, and the processing cost heading, trim- ming and threading less. However, the disadvantage that the tensile strength not great can obtained from medium-carbon steel heat treated. basic openhearth semikilled steel the following analysis the most commonly used: 0.15 0.20 Sulphur........ 0.050 max 0.040 max conforming the AISI C-1018 specifi- cation. the utilization this material bolts process an- nealed. 0441" rd. bolts 950 1000 1050 Process-annealed bolts, °F. THE IRON AGE, August 23, 1945—65. Per cent elongation and reduction area 7000 = 100 n | oe COLD REDUCED 75% 1200 annealing the microstructure cold worked 0.18 pct carbon steel. TABLE Typical Materials Used for Hot-Formed Bolts and Their Approximate Tensile Properties Tensile Properties Chemical Composition, Area C-1017 0.17 0.025 33,000 60,000 C-1018 38,000 68,000 Sulphurized C-1115 40,000 65,000 Bessemer B-1112 50,000 75,000 60,000 75,000 C-1040 60,000 85,000 C-1045 62,000 90,000 Sulphurized C-1141 65,000 95,000 Low Carbon........ Minimum Tensile Strength Requirements for C-1018 Cold-Formed and Hot-Formed Bolts Coarse (NC) Thread Fine (NF) Thread Bolt Size, Yield Strength, Tensile Strength, Yield Strength, Tensile Strength, Lb, Min Lb, Min Lb, Min Lb, Min Yield The equivalent PSI yield and ten- sile strength values are shown right. 53,000 IRON AGE, August 23, 1945 the principle one retaining the high tensile strength the cold- drawn wire. The effect cold drawing the physical properties 0.27 pet carbon steel illustrated fig. Cold drawing increases the tensile strength and the same time re- duces the elongation and reduction area values which are measures plasticity. The limitations placed using wire drawing means in- creasing bolt strength that sufficient plasticity must retained the wire ‘so that can used the cold-head- ing operation. for all practical purposes one draft all that can employed. properly employ this principle retaining the effect the cold working ma