The Iron Age 1941-01-23: Vol 147 Iss 4

JANUARY 23, 1941 Sheet, Strip and Tin Mill Production Finding them only the first step—it's eliminating them that COUNTS. WEAN equipment ELIMINATES BOTTLENECKS of, 8 r + 3, a 2? il = solved our Handling Problem’ Many plants, flooded with defense orders, are solving their materials handling problem installing extra cranes work with their old cranes the same runway. you have materials handling “log investigate the possibilities additional your shop. For Longer, Trouble Free Whiting offers overhead traveling cranes all types, de- select Whiting Crane signed for high speeds and quiet, efficient operation. These cranes have flexible couplings, tapered tread drive wheels, oil-flushed load brake, and many other exclusive design fea- tures that assure low-cost handling. Capacities from one 400 tons. Also electric hoists from tons. Whiting Whiting cranes, and wear have reduced the use smooth-running Corporation, 15601 Lathrop Ave., Harvey, Ill. Canada: iti ears. ese gears tran Whiting Corp. (Canada), Ltd., Toronto. Gears mit motor power quietly and efficiently through the contact their precision-cut teeth. They Builders quality cranes for over years outlast ordinary gears two one. Heavy-duty roller bearings keep these gears permanent align- ment and make frequent lubrication unnecessary, Send for Booklet “How Write Traveling Crane Free production executives. RHEAD TRAVELING ree Crane the use tead spur wer quietly continuous They JANUARY 23, 1941 VOL. 147 NO. VAN DEVENTER President and Editor BAUR Vice-President and General Manager Managing Editor News Editor Technical Editor Machine Associate Editor Editor WINTERS Art Editor Washington Editors MOFFETT JAMES ELLIS Resident District Editors CAMPBELL HERMAN KLEIN Pittsburgh Chicago Cleveland Detroit Editorial Correspondents Buffalo Cincinnati FRAZAR CHARLES POST Boston San Francisco HUGH SHARP JOHN McCUNE Milwaukee Birmingham SANDERSON ROY EDMONDS Toronto, Ontario St. Louis LEROY ALLISON Newark, Ten Thousand Frying Technical Articles Does Steel Industry Need New Carbide Tools Brazed Low Feature Reports News and Market Reports Metal Working Construction Steel 100 Summary the Pig Iron Prices. District Market Sales Possibilities Fatigue Cracks Copyright, Chilton Company DIX, Manager Reader Service Owned and Published CHILTON COMPANY (Incorporated) Advertising Staff Publication end Emerson Findley ice Executive Offices Chestnut and Séth Sts., East 42nd St. Herman, Chilton Bldg., Philadelphia Pa. New York, Hottenstein, 1012 Otis Bldg., Chicago U.S.A. Leonard, 100 East 42nd St., New York Peirce Lewis, 7310 Woodward Ave., Detroit Ober, 100 East 42nd St., New York Don Harner, 1595 Pacific Avenue, Long Beach, Cal. OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS MUSSELMAN, President JOS. HILDRETH, Vice-President GEORGE GRIFFITHS, Vice-President EVERIT TERHUNE, Vice-President VAN DEVENTER, Vice-President Member, Audit Bureau Circulations Member, Associated Business Papers BAUR, Vice-President Indexed the Industrial Arts Index. Pub- lished every Thursday. Subscription Price: United States and Possessions, Mexico, Cuba, WILLIAM BARBER, Treasurer JOHN BLAIR MOFFETT, Secretary $6.00; Canada, $8.50; Foreign, year. Single copy, cents. JULIAN CHASE, THOMAS KANE, CHARLES HEALE HARRY DUFFY | 4 : 4 q | 4 ~. | anes, been & NEW WELD-O-TR HERE’S WHAT YOU GET WITH and ormore times perminute. mechanical delay—no stopping and starting. REDUCED moving parts wear out. IRON AGE, January 23, GETTING WELDS PRODUCTION LESS COST ALL Burned resistance welds and poor bond between metal were con- stant sources trouble body assemblies this well-known automotive plant. Shutdowns were frequent and maintenance was heavy due the type welding control use. But today the picture en- tirely changed. Seventeen gun- welders, each equipped with Weld-O-Trol, have completely eliminated burned welds. stronger bond now obtained with half many welds used formerly. Rejected assemblies AROUND SAVINGS have reached new low. And during the six months the Weld- O-Trols have been the job, they .cost penny for maintenance. Weld-O-Trol’s complete AB- SENCE MOVING PARTS the feature largely responsible for this remarkable improve- ment. does away entirely with time delay—giving you the full accuracy the welding timer and closer control current. you’d like know more about Weld-O-Trol, drop line. Ask for Bulletin F-8451-A. WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC MFG. CO., EAST PITTSBURGH, PA. | ! : \ til | ~ Ten Thousand Frying Pans HIS epistle dedicated the ten thousand sales managers the metal working:industry for whom frying pans are now being heated. Some these frying pans are large and some small, according the particular anatomy the gentlemen who are destined them. They all have one thing common, will have, when the stoves get properly going. They will hot enough melt whatever fat may have been put sales departments these “come and get the days. sales manager, course, never without his troubles, even forced draft sellers market. But his troubles double when the relation- ship between his plant capacity and the demand for his product such that cannot get enough business meet the overhead. When that condition arises, there are plenty other competing sales managers the same boat and thus ushered that vicious and damaging cycle chiseling, price cutting and loss selling that the ruination business. Over capacity cycles have caused plenty grief the past but nothing like the grief that the next one will bring with it. For never before has there been such forced draft multiplication both capacity and competitors. The entire competitive situation being changed beyond recognition. Let give typical example. One machinery manufacturer making JANUARY 23, 1941 product has expanded capacity employ directly ndirectly over ten thousand workers. This concern has four five well and long established competitors who have similarly ex- ESTABLISHED panded, making total employment perhaps 25,000 workers product 1855 for which normal domestic demand would require not over 4000. But this not all. For each these concerns has taken dozens sub-contractors who are thus “learning the you think they are going forget what they have learned after the emergency? This same situation extends throughout all industry. something want because the only way meet the requirements the defense program. Nevertheless, the far sighted sales manager will face the facts now and prepare for the future. will polish his husiness building and customer holding tools and practice using them now, when less wise and far-sighted executives are letting them rust because the present job can possibly done without them. man can keep his golf clubs the closet for year and then out and shoot competition. And remember this: Consumer recognition well established name and reputation will more keep you out that frying pan than anything else. Te | | fy | Prescribed for Tough Forming Jobs above sheet has important history. was prescribed Inland metallurgists solve specific forming problem, take fine finish, and make better product. was conceived when manufacturer, looking for sheets best suited for his needs, called Inland metallurgist. Together they studied the part design, fabrication method, finish, and use the product. From this study came sheet specification written Inland metallurgists, who personally checked processing methods and quality. These metallurgists, working side side with Inland skilled inspectors, made certain that this sheet will meet the customer’s requirements. Every order placed the future against this specifi- cation will given the same care and atten- tion. result users can depend Inland quality and uniformity from sheet sheet, and from order order. This what Inland calls “metallurgical co- operation with customers.” This why Inland Sheets have enviable reputation for excep- tionally fine performance customers’ shops. SHEETS STRIP TIN PLATE BARS PLATES FLOOR PLATES STRUCTURALS PILING RAILS TRACK ACCESSORIES REINFORCING BARS | LIPPERT, Technical Editor, The Age ° ° ORE than 400 years ago Bacon set down the truism that, “prosperity without many fears.” Steel buyers have worked fear being caught short steel they are stuffing warehouses with stocks and flooding producers with futures. Legislators may persuaded fear curtailment production consumer goods, the result being enmity workers thrown out work, and reductions tax revenues—consequently they press for additional steel making capacity. The public fears therefore, alarums nearby steel shortage stir dismay and blind insistence for and nervous indigestion mounts alarmingly, practically every- one stands sing God Bless America and fling invective this question large additions present steel capacity. Certainly the world’s greatest industrial nation should able examine sanely this not very complicated problem, problem which few men good will could clean one afternoon, with one cast for the role. ° The steel industry effort will made paint whelming pressure construct the steel industry lily white, large quantities present all-knowing, never capacity. And, even though mean motives, errors, Government apparently excep- tion that fears nothing, still liable sponsor something unsound. jealousies, chiseling, selfish self- interest, any other those weaknesses which plague the hu- man race general. But, this question tremendous increases capacity, the steel industry stands united the contention most convenient all these ques- that practically everyone else How did all these fears develop? How justified are they today? How can they allayed? would adequate and treat- permitted get their ment, however, necessitates wad- worth. And, ever hope- ing through the sizable quantities the steel industry believes its material set forth the follow- should weighted more ing paragraphs. heavily than those emanating from THE IRON AGE, January 23, and heet very ifi land BARS i Farm dollars 1936 1938 Wards automotive production, million units 22—THE IRON AGE, January 23, 1942 Farm Income Use Stee! Year (Million (Thousands Dollars) Net Tons) 1936 (actual) 8,499 2,238 1937 (actual) 2,335 1938 (actual) 8,081 1,110 1939 ....... 8,581 943 1940 (actual) ....... 9,000 1941 (estimated) 9,500 1,100 1942 (estimated) 10,000 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Structural shapes Sheets 271,800 Pipe, tubing wire 150,500 All other 28,000 Industry total per representina 942,800 net tons 1939 Automotive Industry Automotive Use Stee! Production (Thousands (Thousand Units) Net Tons) 1937 (actual) 1938 (actual) 2,655 4,053 1939 (actual 3,732 5.396 1940 (actual) 7,000 1941 4,500 1942 000 4.000 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Structural shopes 23,100 Bars, small shapes Strip Pipe, tubing, wire 154,100 All other 65,900 18 per cant raprasentina Industry total net tons 1939 | | | | ° © antes « | Trend (1936-1940) ~139,600 units per | | | | | 0.8 | sources Which think that cans are made tin. The rolling barrage leveled against the steel opened and moved steadily for- ward pace all too familiar steel producers, who the past have been similarly hag-ridden wars nerves. The development has been about follows: (1) The opening phase, being preliminary bursts newspaper columnists soften the terrain. The spotting was spired and correlated, but the shells were for the most wabbly. (2) Big then brought into action, the guise really impressive report pre- pared Louis Paradiso, under the direction Gardiner Means, the National Resources Planning Board. The title alone dramatic, “Capital Requirements: Study Methods Applied the Iron and Steel Industry.” This study the one which, unfortunately, over the past week has been given such widespread though its purpose has been misin- terpreted and its tentative and purely hypothetical conclusions blindly accepted recommenda- tions for remedial anticipatory adjustments the steel industry. (3) stick time bombs dropped—a rather secret study Melvin Chazeau the National Defense Advisory Commission Pri- orities Board reported going the rounds behind the scenes. couple newspaper columnists have supposedly given this study the once-over, and advise that proves that the country needs 10,000,000 tons new capacity, speed being most imperative. (4) gas blanket was laid down last week—that is, elaborate stricture leveled the National Economic and Social Planning As- sociation, entitled This baby one that really packs wallop. could very fancifully described mellifluous philippic—or could more pro- saically described sounding mapping the steel in- dustry’s future, with more than enough overtones State Social- ism make Board Chairmen many steel plants dance painfully around one foot and show the whites their eyes. And, course, the mental agitation the Board the many naive technical nouncements throughout port, obviously incorrect those familiar with the industry. (5) The element suspense White Engineering Corp., now pre- paring report for President Roosevelt. Mr. Dunn’s acumen generally respected that all con- cerned will likely accept his ap- praisal, appraisal likely fall somewhere between that Melvin Chazeau and the horrified ad- monitions the steel industry. (6) Supporting action developed unexpected quarter the SWOC announced few days ago, via Phillip Murray, that present ca- pacity was ample for all needs. Thus the big push approaches the zero hour. The steel industry stands slack-jawed, disbelief its eyes, completely ignored, incredu- lously awaiting the kill. But, only understandably that steel makers make few defensive gestures, perhaps feebly point out that— (1) Steel making facilities this country have been rebuilt dur- ing the Depression vears, that today they are technically superior any other the world. (2) That mills the United States are today grinding out far more steel than all the remainder the world together. This pace can maintained, even ad- vanced, long emergency exists. (3) That the Government far has failed specify how much steel rearmament will require. The Gov- ernment, course, may not actu- ally know. any case, steel capac- ity today more maximum independent estimates defense needs. Obviously, there- fore, recent demands for large ex- pansion capacity have nothing whatever with rearmament, but rather could easily cloak theo- retical economic planning which might itself interfere with defense forced onto the industry. (4) That industry, defense otherwise, stymied for lack steel, nor will they the future ordinary intelligence brought bear the problems. (5) That additional specialized capacity, e., electric furnace, im- perative for armament industries, has been willingly and quickly in- stalled and will progressively ex- panded order fully ade- quate for all discernible future armament needs. Furthermore, this new capacity will serious future burden either the indus- try the country, what with ex- pected maintenance steel activity and aircraft demands the post-war period. (6) That recent attacks the position the steel industry, even though frequently honestly con- ceived and laboriously developed, and certainly patriotic intent, have erred grievously basic as- sumptions, the errors being type easily made those not familiar with the intricacies steel metallurgy and production. (7) That sizable spurts ca- pacity require greater expenditures and intra-company dislocation than government studies anticipate. The time and effort consumed install- ing such capacity would enervat- ing the extreme. And, anyhow, sizable increases could not possibly brought into play for from one two even longer, for the increases must travel back through iron ore and coal carrying facilities and into the mines. (8) That current non-military steel consumption following the all-too-familiar pattern spurts in-industrial activity. Stocks are far more sizable many direc- tions than generally realized; and misgivings emanating from Wash- ington are only making worse situation which could easily realistic producers and government officials around conference table. short, the attitude respon- sible producers steel could set down about like this. “The country precarious interna- tional situation and dented armament program under way. Don’t let waste much energy and work much venom problem which artificially whipped white heat. Let’s get few steel executives and few responsible government officials to- gether and one afternoon get this whole problem quieted down and sensibly evaluated. arma- ment industry will ask vain for steel, and non-defense industry will squeezed. Let’s devote our energies our many lems, not fritter them away com- pletely unnecessary bickering.” Such the attitude the steel industry. quite difficult THE IRON AGE, January 23, 1941—23 | | 0 1¢ 0 q | Value contracts dollars Production tin billion units 1938 1940 1942 | t-- | 1938 1939 1942 Construction Value Contracts Industry Awarded Use Stee! Year (Million (Thousands Dollars) Net Tons) 1936 2,675 6,468 1937 (actual) 2,913 6,038 1938 (actual) 3,197 4,398 1939 (actual) 3,550 6,125 1940 (actual) 3,800 7,000 (estimated) 4,150 7,100 1942 (estimated) 4,000 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons in 1939 11,900 Track accessories 13,200 Plates 748,400 Bars, small shapes 316,700 Tin and black plate 68,300 Sheets Strip 109,700 All other 146,200 Industry total per cent, representing 6,124,800 net tons 1939 Light Containers Industry Tin Cans Use Stee! Year Produced (Thousands (Millions) Net Tons) 1936 (actual) 2,750 1937 (actual) 3,219 1938 (actual) 14,594 2,137 1939 (actual) 16,220 2,742 1940 (actual) 16,300 2,900 1941 16,250 2,800 1942 16.250 2,800 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Plotes 20,000 Tin and black plate 2,108,200 Sheets Strip 82,400 Pipe, tubing and wire 40,000 All other 21,800 Industry total per cent, representing net tons 1939 24—THE IRON AGE, January 23, conceive any man’s criticizing such position. Basic Data Not Valid Now return the Paradiso- Means report, previously mentioned under (2). This the only study far uncovered for public exami- nation and criticism. The report very elaborate, worked out most minute detail, and quite ob- viously represents very sizable expenditure effort. Messrs. Paradiso and Means clever, but, course, the steel in- dustry looks them with jaundiced eyes, believing their activities colored deep-rooted sympathy for some variety state socialism. Irrespective their political be- liefs, however, does both our capitalistic democracy possible, hoped-for state socialism, definite disservice map out the future the all-important basic steel indus- try fallacious assumptions. Cer- tainly, even Messrs. Paradiso and Means should agree that. The principal objective the Paradiso-Means study present methodology for determining the capital equipment requirements the steel industry. method- ology presented therein economic formulae which represent about the most complicat- techniques available. However, even though such impressive words are used designate the procedure and even though application highly arcane process, the whole analysis still certainly de- pends the validity the as- sumptions comprise the basic data. charity the authors, the report its present condition should definitely not have been re- leased for such wide distribution. Furthermore, equally unfor- tunate that the cloak econometric formulae and the prestige the National Resources Committee give time when the problem steel capacity deserves the more careful, sympathetic and accurate consid- hoped for that Mr. Gano Dunn, his report President Roosevelt, does not duplicate the mental cos- tiveness, apply too trustingly the data developed Mr. Paradiso. But, enough these generalized condemnations. More detailed cri- ticism called for. There are two serious errors which largely invalidate the con- clusions the report with respect the estimates additional ca- pacity and equipment required the assumed income levels. (1) Based the entirely falla- cious assumption that the rated capacities the steel industry, published the American Iron and Steel Institute, are not prac- tical, the report discounts the blast furnace and open hearth capacity the industry more than per cent and the rolling mills per cent. (2) Over-estimates have been made the net retirements per year existing equipment. Thus, even assuming the hypo- theses the report that any one the three levels consumer in- come might attained 1941, and past correlations with iron and steel production maintained, the following downward revisions estimated additional capacities re- quired would nevertheless have made result these errors: Billion Billion Billion Dollar Dollar Level Dollar Level Dn a a Cs. a Oc- BLAST FURNACES, PIG IRON Revised None None 8.4 OPEN HEARTH, INGOTS ONLY Note: extreme importance point out that cognizance taken the reserve Bessemer ingot capacity over and above the tonnage included the latest published capacity totals, possible, substi- tuting Bessemer for open hearth the fullest extent, that further downward revisions the estimated additional open hearth requirements may made follows: OPEN HEARTH, 2nd REVISION *There evidence that total pig iron requirements well iron ore requirements have been under-estimated avoid confusion adjustments have not been made compensate for these errors. Billion Billion Billion Dollar Level Dollar Level SHEET MILLS Revised None None 0.8 2.1 BARS Reported None None None None 1.3 Revised None None None None None None STRIP Reported 0.4 0.7 1.2 Revised 0.2 0.5 1.0 TIN PLATE Revised None None None None None None TOTAL ROLLED STEEL PRODUCTS Revised 0.2 2.2 Thus, becomes apparent that when the capacity the steel in- dustry considered correctly, the picture becomes completely differ- ent. But, not particularly sur- prising, that Paradiso and Means are confused the question steel capacity—for, due publica- tion figures for both “practical” and “theoretical” capacity 1925 and 1926 the American Iron and Steel Institute, and the quent wording the report recom- mending the discontinuance this practice, considerable confusion has arisen among the strictly theoreti- cal students what the actual practical capacity the industry might be. hoped that the foot- note reference page will clear this confusion. The Paradiso-Means study also blundered with regard coke re- quirements for the ingot expansion blithely recommended. Two er- rors are apparent. (1) Coke necessary ferro- alloy furnaces was not included the estimate. (2) There was failure recognize that all probability the utilization present beehive capacity would remain constant high levels con- sumer income that the entire increase would probably taken result, the estimates additional capacity required should re- vised follows: — Reported 800 7.0 1909 AsRevised 1660 10.8 3700 The ramifications and fine points collection, preparation and trad- ing scrap iron and steel baffles practically everyone times, and Messrs. Paradiso and Means are exception the rule. Serious un- der-estimate the steel scrap sit- uation shows the report. The bland statement that “there prob- ably would difficulty about getting sufficient scrap” high consumer income levels grave error unless price con- sideration. Cost Assumptions Err Badly Due chiefly grossly underes- timating the cost modern roll- ing mills, and overlooking the in- termediate semi-finishing mills THE IRON AGE, January 23, e! | | 3 ans 400 hing | dex business activity | an-hours worked, FRB Index 0.7 1942 ) Household, Office and Institutional Equipment and Appliances Business Week Industry Index Use Stee! Year Business (Thousands Activity Net Tons) 1936 104.7 1937 1938 (actual) 86.0 868 1939 (actual) 106.1 1940 (actual) 124.0 1,800 130.0 1942 (estimated) 135.0 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net 1939 Bars, small shapes 123,300 Tin and black plate 44,700 Sheets 932,700 Strip 122,000 Pipe, tubing and wire 224,600 All other 63,600 Industry total per cent, representing net tons 1939. Industrial Machinery and Tools Man-Hours Worked Industry Machinery Use Steel Year Mfg. Plants (Thousands (FRB Index) Net Tons) 1936 (actual) 105 1937 (actual) 126 1939 104 1,790 1940 (actual) 133 2,150 1941 (estimated) 145 2,350 1942 160 2,500 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Structural shapes 96,000 Plates 181,900 Bars, small shapes 504,400 Sheets Pipe, tubing and wire All other 92,200 Industry total per cent, representing 1,790,100 net tons 1939. | +— Treno! (/936- 1940) J 92600 tons per year = 26—THE IRON AGE, January 23, | well other general facilities, which would have considered connection with any expansion rolling mill requirements, the estimated cost additional units error. Assuming the industry today fairly well-balanced coke, pig iron, ingots, and finish- ing capacity, additional require- ments, exclusive ore, coal, and transportation facilities, under each the hypothetical consumer in- come levels, would have re- vised follows, the reported quirements were accepted: Billion Billion Billion Dollar Level Dollar Level Assuming that the additional in- got capacity estimated the report over and above that which would absorbed the estimated addi- tional mills required could used existing mills, other words, that the present facilities the industry are unbalanced, the esti- mated costs should revised ap- proximately follows: Billion Billion Billion Dollar Level Dollar Level and $1,156,000,000 $2,126,000,000 take care all errors equipment estimates, but still ac- cepting the hypothetical assump- tions with regard the levels income, the approximate revised figures would -be follows: Billion Billion Billion Dollar Level Dollar Level The report bases its findings three assumed levels con- sumer income 1941: billions dollars, which was arrived extending the trend line through the peaks iron and steel produc- tion during the last forty years and estimating the level eco- nomic activity which would bring iron and steel production back the trend indicated; billions dollars, level which would mean “practical” full employment (about million still unemployed) bil- lions dollars, representing estimated level complete em- ployment. (All three levels are com- puted 1936 dollars.) There the further assumption that these levels will maintained over sus- tained periods time. Income Levels Over-Emphasized Then, using multiple correlation techniques, the report relates past fluctuations iron and steel pro- duction with those consumer in- come and, therefore, obtains estimate the capacity require- ments which would necessary produce the steel demanded boom year the peak the busi- ness cycle. This procedure may questioned two grounds: (1) Rates production reached the peak cycle are consider- ably excess those which would maintained high level business activity; particularly this true the steel industry since durable goods such steel are produced cyclical depressions lower rate than they are consumed wear and obsolescence, and boom times are produced higher rate than they are consumed. The level production at- tained such peaks business activity are further inflated when related sustained levels in- come since, historically, approxi- mately per cent the produc- tion peaks the iron and steel in- dustry has represented production for inventory. Also, the relationship derived from the three assumed levels consumer income are computed projected 1941 trends and the find- ings the report are summarized table headed part: “addi- tional capital equipment required 1941 for each three levels consumer income.” The following two questions therefore arise, first, whether these consumer in- come levels can attained 1941 Determination Rated Capacity the Steel Industry The American Iron and Steel Institute’s report 1927 rating capacity, reads follows: “Your committee has concluded, after two years’ experience, that publish two capacities for the same product makes for confusion. It, there- fore, now recommends that all figures ‘practical capacity’ abandoned and that the only figures published the results the annual survey capacity and that this called ‘capacity’ addition, the Resources Committee points out, “The Annual Statistical Report the Institute for 1938 presents comparable data from 1925 1938 blast-furnace capacity and steel-ingot capacity. For the year 1925 the capacities given agree with the estimates theoretical capacity, that is, without making adjustments for necessary shut-downs, estimated the view these facts, resume the development the procedures now used determine the published capacity figures for the industry presented: The Special Survey Capacity Dec. 31, 1925, made determine capacity was made under instructions reporting companies that “The figures capacity desired are your practical capacity. That is, output which you feel can attained under conditions maximum demand, assuming adequate transportation service and serious labor shortage. You are especially requested base your figures your usual number operating turns per week; and make due allowance for such holidays you customarily observe, well for average time lost for repairs, relining and for rebuilding Data submitted survey blanks, supporting the claimed capacity showed averages for each size open hearth furnaces covering “tons per heat,” “heats per “turns per week,” and “greatest actual output (total) first six months any year since Jan. 1916, and second six months any such for open hearth plants. For blast furnaces data submitted included produc- tion for any one month since Jan. 1916, with all furnaces operation,” “greatest production for any six months and any calendar year since Jan. Yearly capacity was rep- resent production that you believe you can actually attain.” The same information was requested support capacity The special surveys for 1925 and 1926 became regular annual surveys for the years 1927 1932 inclusive, these surveys being the bases for industry capacity totals published the insti- tute. They carried the same instructions allowances for shut-downs the 1925 and 1926 surveys practical capacity. Therefore while the institute dropped the use the terms and 1927, the returns subsequently made reporting companies represented “attainable” capacity under conditions maximum demand, based actual past performance. The surveys which have been made, starting with September, 1933, and annually since, Dec. 31, have been more specific that data was supplied for each individual blast furnace and each open hearth furnace the plant, and for each furnace the percentage capacity deducted for “lost was indicated. The capacity all cases was supported previous actual performance the respective stack open hearth furnace. should evident from the above that the institute’s pub- lished totals blast furnace and steel works capacity have made allowances for “lost and therefore the further de- ductions for lost time made the study under review, 10.9 per cent for blast furnaces and 10.7 per cent for open hearth fur- naces are not warranted. year the past two decades has maximum demand for steel extended over the full year, but the rate production the peaks has shown that the capacity attainable. the last two months 1940 November and December production open hearth steel was 95.2 per cent the Dec. 1939, capacity. THE IRON AGE, January 23, | 5 >| | ~ ‘ | | 1936 1937 1938 | | | Operating billion dollars 1936 1937 1938 1940 194] 1942 Gas, Water and Mining Crude Oil Industry Production Use Stee! (Million (Thousands Barrels) Net Tons) 1938 (actual) ....... 1,214 1939 (actual) ....... 1,264 2,665 1940 (actual) ....... 1,335 2,800 1941 (estimated) .... 2,650 1942 1,425 2,500 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Rails 47,700 Track accessories 35,600 Structural shapes 148,700 Plates 175,900 Bars, small shapes 113,400 Concrete bars 24,200 Tin and black plate 25,500 Sheets 139,000 Strip 14,700 Pipe, tubing and wire Industry total per cent, 2,665,300 net tons 1939. Railroads and Equipment Gr. Oper. Revenue Class Industry Railroads Use Stee! Year (Million (Thousands Dollars) Net Tons) 1936 (actual) 4,082 1937 (actual) 4,166 4,686 1938 (actual) 3,565 1939 (actual) 3,072 1940 (actual) 4,270 3,459 1941 (estimated) .... 4,635 3,700 1942 5.000 4,000 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Track accessories 539,500 Structural shapes 234,400 Plates 485,200 Bars, small shapes 231,500 Sheets Strip — = 41,200 Pipe, tubing and wire 57,500 All other 220,400 Industry total per cent, representing 3,071,800 net tons 1939. 28—THE IRON AGE, January 23, | 0.6 0.4 | 4 i-—. 0.5 o and, second, whether the past cor- relation consumer income in- dustrial production and iron and steel production can maintained under the pressures that would ex- ist with such rapidly accelerating consumer income. (1) Insofar current estimates are available only the billion dol- lar level the realm prob- ability 1941. Consumer income might reach billion dollars 1942, while the billion dollar level seems impossible attain within such short period time; any conclusions with respect the latter are, therefore, purely hypo- thetical. (2) The possibility the fol- lowing intervening factors creating ceiling retarding industrial pro- duction and iron and steel produc- tion relation consumer income dollar level 1941 and bil- lion dollar level 1942. (a) The principal retarding fac- tor recognized and mentioned the report: “At high levels ac- tivity, bottleneck might arise be- cause lack adequate labor supply produce the products the industry, build the required additional equipment within rea- sonable time, and manufacture the various finished goods which iron and steel products are The report continues, “No attempt made this report consider these problems This seri- ous omission and affects the valid- ity the study for practical pur- poses. (b) Problems impending nature also will involved the creased output goods. (c) The fiseal policy the gov- ernment can factor since the stimulus for achieving high levels consumer income the present time arises from the national de- fense program; increased national income, government sponsored, can only fully effective deficit financing continued. Baby de- fense bonds, sold individuals through high-pressure campaigns, thus limiting the spending in- creased income, will have retard- ing influence. (d) Restrictive Federal Reserve policies may also intervene. Over and above all that has al- ready been said, must reiter- ated this point that estimated levels consumer income the report are compiled 1936 dol- lars; spiraling costs living may require much higher levels 1941 1942 dollars equal the levels estimated the report. Other Errors and Omissions The report also replete with errors, omissions and questionable procedures which, while important many respects, not affect the conclusions the report much those previously reviewed. few examples may cited. Using varied niques, the report establish adjusted relationship between the consump- tion ten different categories finished steel products and data consumer income index industrial production. This procedure peculiar two respects. (1) Six separate time series are used which might justified the series applied particular produce covering period during which significant long term trends were developing. However, this not the case. Sheets and strip are both largely consumed the automobile in- dustry; yet the time series for sheets 1929-37 and for strip 1923-37. Strip shows such rapid acceleration established that when projected 1941, more strip estimated con- sumed the low billion dollar level than the boom year 1929. Plates and shapes, two items closely related consumption re- quirements, have time series 1929-37 and 1924-37, respectively. (2) The choice consumer in- come data some cases and the industrial production others does not seem based logic all cases. Relationships with consumer in- come are determined shapes, skelp, and rails and with industrial production black plate, wire rods, and bars. difficult reconcile the estab- tween black plate, item largely used produce tin cans con- sumers’ perishable good) and sheets used automobiles consumers’ durable good) with index in- dustrial production; and_ shapes, skelp and plate (all used heavy industry) with data con- sumer income. were obtained, but since the report presumes predict the level industrial production that will result each projected level con- sumer income, the whole procedure far from logical. The conclusion that rails, shapes plates would produced projected 1941 consumer income billion dol- lars rules out reason favor mathematical fantasy, particularly when compared the estimates for strip. Miscellaneous Errors The report shows certain lack knowledge with respect the technology steel making. For instance: “Flue gas” and “sulphide am- are cited by-products the coking process. Presumably “fuel gas” and “ammonium sul- phate” were meant. Certain skilled workmen the mills would rather amused learn that they (the rollers) are heated blast furnace gas. Ap- parently the use this gas under boilers and gas engines the mills was referred to. The statement that the further extension the duplex process meant increase Bessemer capacity easily could have been avoided with little technical checking. The large chart showing tuations steel production con- tains point plotting error for the year 1924. Checking the ratios pig iron produced coke consumed 1929 and 1937 with the ratios the estimates for the two products the projected levels consumer income the report would have revealed the error not including coke consumed fur- naces the estimates. Means Forgets Past Mistakes All these serious errors the Paradiso-Means report should lay permanently rest. Nor should such disposition considered ex- cessively harsh; for industrial re- searchers have come reports swamped with basic absurdities. Back 1938 Mr. Means was party bulky brain-child called “Patterns Resources Use,” which set so-called correct road maps chart the future economic highways, the form elaborate mathematical formulae. This re- port contained many statistical, economic and logical errors and fal- lacies that seemed destined have little influence. But, now this THE IRON AGE, January 23, 1941—29 ] ig 2 ng a worked, FRB Index Trend 9.6 per year 1942 0.9 0.8 | | } } | | | | o | 0.8 30—THE IRON AGE, January 23, Shipbuilding Man-Hours Worked Use Stee! Year Shipyards (Thousands (FRB Index) Net Tons) 1936 (actual) 288 1937 (actual) 391 1938 (actual) 390 1939 127 489 1940 (actual) 187 1941 (estimated 220 1942 250 1,500 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Structural shapes iy 76,400 Plates 316,500 Bars, small shapes 33,200 Industry total per cent, net tons 1939. Miscellaneous Industries (Including pressing, stamping and form- ing not otherwise allocated) Metal Industry Working Use Steel Year Activity (Thousands (Steel's Index) Net Tons) 1936 96.2 7,000 1937 (actual) 103.9 7,332 1938 74.9 1939 (actual) 5,540 1940 (actual) 113.0 6,800 1941 (estimated) 130.0 1942 (estimated) 150.0 8,000 Principal Steel Products Involved and Approximate Percentage Total Domestic Use Each Product Net Tons 1939 Structural shapes 84,300 Concrete bars 37,500 Tin and black plate Sheets Pipe, tubing and wire 2,064,200 All other 183,000 Industry total per cen 5,539,700 net tons 1939. representing | | | + | | = @ 0 | same technique employed de- mand that the steel industry spend hundreds millions dollars take care what Means sees the future; and hysteria armament work dragged popularize the conclusions. The absurdities peering into the future via Means’ formulae were particularly well described John Scoville (Chrysler Corp.) before the Cowles Commission for Economic Research, Colorado Springs, July, 1939. Here are some typical examples. According Mr. Means’ terns Resource Use” technique, when the country reaches 100 bil- lion dollar national income level, then automobile output will near- 13,000,000 units year. Since the average life automobiles about nine years, this would give the country few years about 117,000,000 automobiles use, nearly four family. But, the same Patterns technique would in- dicate gasoline consumption 900,- 000,000 bbls.—so each the cars must driven only 3500 miles per year, the cars redesigned about miles gallon gas. The Patterns technique for the same period allows for 1,705,000,- 000 bbls. crude oil output which falls far short that required make the gas. looks there will not enough crude oil make the gasoline, and not enough gaso- line drive the cars. Mr. Means’ Patterns technique yields other fantastic results. With income 100 billion dol- lars, iron and steel consumption would increase 242 per cent, copper 429 per cent, passenger car produc- tion 200 per cent, construction 430 per cent, and amusement would increase only per cent, the number domestic servants would increase only per cent, butter and cheese con- sumption would increase only per cent, the number profes- sional persons would increased only per cent and the number school teachers would increase only per cent. others words, the nation becomes rich the tune 100 billion dollars, would cover these states with houses and articles made iron, copper, lead and zinc, and only slightly in- crease the amount spent for med- ical service, domestic help, amuse- ments, education, and better food. course, these conclusions are not consistent, either with human de- sire social progress. But when Means few weeks ago said that the steel industry must increase its capacity millions tons predicated national in- come much, much for 1941 and 1942, stirred unholy brew. Half the newspapers the country professional viewers-with-alarm were ready lynch steel makers, deliberately sabotaging rearmament and propa- gating fifth column activities—all because they claimed enough capacity already. What Will 1942 Bring? The question naturally develops whether the steel industry exhibiting dangerous over-caution. Will there enough steel for 1942? course, Mr. Means’ gaze into the future hyperopic there danger others suffering from comparative myopia look- ing into the same future. attempt, therefore, lay- ing the ghost steel shortage, THE IRON AGE herein peers 1942, the basic assumption being that the war that time still full flood. This projection into future eco- nomic situation done with due humility and reservation—but two years far from hopeless extra- polation, and there are some excel- lent basic data use spring- board. And, also, this study THE IRON AGE affords Messrs. Paradiso and Means opportunity for return bout, they desire. First, what the past? The graphs and data pages 22, 24, 26, and cover the experience the American steel industry over the five-year period 1936 1940 inclusive. All finished steel consump- tion during this time allocated ten classifications (see graphs), plus export and (after 1939) Defense Program require- ments. These data come from the yearly surveys THE IRON AGE, which figures. have been consider- ably improved having the output converting and processing indus- tries and the distribution through jobbers broken down into the major classifications. This alloca- tion previously undistributed tonnage back into consumer indus- tries was carried out Marion Worthing, and appeared testi- mony before the T.N.E.C. last year. The trend lines for the various industries, for the period 1936- 1940, are peculiar interest that they demonstrate undramatic technological changes that are tak- ing place, but which are usually ig- nored outsiders. For instance, consider Agricul- (Continued page 87) Estimated 1942 Consumption Hot Rolled Steel Products TONS) Merchant Tin and Pipe Tubing and and Con- Black Track and Wire Finished, crete Bars Plates Shapes Sheets Strip Plate Accessories Products Export Only Total Total 6,262,000 3,421,000 8,760,000 2,566,000 2,235,000 6,663,000 Export (based 1940 7,000,000 (*) Merchant marine only. Naval figures Defense Program needs. 560, 000 75, 000 THE IRON AGE, January 23, | $ 1- i ‘ ns ? 100 ing 4 ¥ Operator (left) placing loaded tray tools into fur- nace. Trays are manually pushed through the furnace and discharged opposite end. Other operator wiring carbide tip and copper constantly increasing pop- ularity cemented carbide cutting tools has prompted new methods manufacture step production and reduce costs. Cementing the carbide tip through brazing has been one the factors which has retarded quick and adversely influencing production cost and therefore selling price. brazing, absolutely clean sur- face essential. addition, there the problem preventing de- carburization the high carbon shank the high temperatures required for brazing. Before the days the controlled atmosphere furnace, fluxing the entire tool had resorted to. And, while this gave satisfactory job, the individ- ual hand dipping and subsequent grinding off the flux and excess copper was laborious, time con- suming and costly job. The development the fuel fired and electric furnace using hydrogen atmosphere has been vast improvement over older meth- ods. However, the relatively high cost hydrogen and possible danger explosion have left some- thing desired. Recently the Morse Tool Co., Detroit, installed semi-continuous furnace, designed and fabricated Surface Combustion Corp., em- ploying inexpensive atmosphere which produced from charcoal self-contained generator. The atmosphere known 32—THE IRON AGE, January 23, Char-Mo atmosphere and was orig- inally developed few years ago for heat treating complete range high carbon and alloy steels with- out scale decarburization. The atmosphere composed approx- imately 2/3 nitrogen and 1/3 car- bon monoxide with mal traces water vapor and carbon dioxide. Since the only com- bustible this gas the slow burning carbon monoxide which diluted with two parts inert nitrogen, the possibility ex- plosion practically nil. The generator which forms part the furnace and which re- quires separate heating, consists refractory tube which passes vertically through the furnace be- tween the muffle and furnace wall. The top the tube above the furnace and connected hop- per for The bottom the tube below the furnace and mover. Air (from the same blower used supply combustion air the burners which heat the fur- nace) introduced near the bottom the tube. the air passes through the tube, reacts with the incandescent charcoal the tube and forms gas ideally suited for brazing. This gas taken generator carefully predeter- mined distance from the top the tube. That portion the tube above the take-off point used condition the green charcoal, mak- ing possible use inexpensive arbide Brazed Low Cost ° ° MORSE President, Morse Tool Co., Inc., Detroit commercial charcoal. The portion the gas passing through the tube above the take-off point burned top the furnace. The furnace proper gas-fired and consists preheat zone, heating brazing zone, and cool- ing zone. addition the braz- ing zone, the preheat zone also equipped with burners. However, these burners are seldom used ex- cept when starting the furnace when running heavy loads. The cooling zone water jacketed facilitate rapid cooling. The pro- tective Char-Mo gas introduced into all three chambers. The are placed open trays and manually pushed through the furnace. Loading and unload- ing take place through side doors. The furnace produces aver- age 2000 pieces per hr. The min. preheat, min. braze, and min. for cooling. When brazing average 2000 pieces hr. the amount char- coal used With charcoal per the cost the atmosphere $1.12 for hr. average 2000 pieces. Summing the advantages this new atmosphere furnace, can said that the atmosphere em- ployed very low cost and straight-through feature furnace permits and prompt delivery special orders. UTOMATIC welding, first thought, would appear chiefly mass production indus- tries, like the automotive industries where the repetitive operations large quantities identical assem- blies warrant the added cost spe- cial set-ups. The are welding banjo rear axle housings typical example. Yet the process logical- applicable from economic viewpoint large machine struc- tures, singly engineered, where the footage welds produced large and where the traverses not de- part materially from horizontal straight line. ft. Jong more, laying single bead hand may take many hours. This also holds for multiple pass work heavy structures shorter length. such work there con- siderable loss time changing rods, and stub end loss becomes serious item. Besides quality variable, due the human element, and intermediate craters the end each rod cycle are difficult avoid. Continuous welding this kind lends itself admirably auto- matic metallic are welding. Speed laying the beads can greatly increased, steadier and more uni- form can maintained and better fusion possible because much higher current can used now being used for large machine structures, singly engineered, where the footage welds produced large and where the traverses not depart materially from horizontal straight lines. for given diameter welding wire. Furthermore, cost material less because welding wire costs less coils than short rod form and the stub-end loss entirely eliminated. The problem coatings, once serious one, has been successfully solved that all the advantages shielded arc welding can brought this technique. Ultimate quality the product further improved not only sounder and more uni- form welds, but also minimizing heat distortion since the usual ma- chine set-up for making web flange connections us