The Iron Age 1934-03-08: Vol 133 Iss 10

YEAR SERVICE THE METAL WORKING INDUSTRY RODUCTION -:- MANAGEMENT MARCH 1934 ins hardenability and freedom from distortion, Republic’s Improved Series 3100 Steels are markedly superior the standard 3100 chrome-nickel analyses. Made closer grain size, these new Republic 3100 Steels are materially reducing costs and giving better results many applica- tions for which higher priced alloy compositions were formerly used. Complete data request. REPUBLIC STEEL CORPORATION GENERAL OFFICES YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO P R 0 E S S N } x Na fad THE IRON AGE..... Page MARCH 1934 Pa. Executive Offices: THE IRON AGE, published every Thursday the AGE Canada $8.50, Foreign $12.00. Vol. 133, No. 10. PUBLISHING CO. Publication Office: Cor. Chestnut 56th Sts., Philadelphia, 39th New York, Y., second class matter the Post Office Philadelphia under Act f > THE IRON AGE March 1934 THE IRON AGE PUBLISHING COMPANY * J. FRANK, President G. H. GRIFFITHS, Secretary Cc. S. BAUR, General Advertising Munager PUBLICATION OFFICE: Corner Chestnut and Sts., Philadelphia, Pa. EXECUTIVE OFFICES: 239 West 39th New York, Y., ADVERTISING STAFF Emerson Findley, 311 Union Bldg., Cleveland Member, Associated Business Papers Herman, 675 Delaware Ave., Buffalo, H. K. Hottenstein, 802 Otis Bldg., Chicago Member, Audit Bureau of Circulations Published every Thursday. Subscription Price: Peirce Lewis, 7310 Woodward Ave., Detroit States and Mexico, Cuba, Charles Lundberg, Chilton Bldg., Chestnut $6.00; Canada, $8.50, including duty; Foreign 56th Sts., Philadelphia, Pa. $12.00 year. Single Copy Cents Ober, 239 West 39th St., New York Robinson, 428 Park Pittsburgh Cable Address, ‘‘Ironage, Sweetser, 239 West 39th St., New York D. C. Warren, P. O. Box 81, Hartford, Conn. Pittsburgh Detroit Boston Contents Time Rock the Boat Mercury-Vapor-Steam Plant Fusion Welded Long Term Outlook Iron and Steel Soviet Standardizes Blast Furnace Design The Significance Equilibrium Diagrams Making Knee-Action Springs 25C New Equipment News Personals and Obituaries Washington News February Pig Iron 31C Automotive Industry 31D Markets Construction and Equipment Buying Products Advertised Index Advertisers SEVENTY-NINTH YEAR SERVICE THE METAL WORKING INDUSTRY 2); 29 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | oN Yf 1 ‘ SS reid More Than Immediate Steel! Today—it assumed that Ryerson has the steel and will ship once. But that not enough—you must have special qualities, exact analyses—to duction costs—to meet the increasing speeds capacities required your own product. you may require entirely new steel secure finer finish insurance against corrosion. Today—you expect more Ryerson Steel- Service and you get it. There steel too new remote—no quantity too large secured—or order too small receive intelligent personal atten- tion. Write for the Ryerson Stock these Stocks Steel Joseph Ryerson Son, Inc. Chicago, Louis, Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Boston, Philadelphia, Jersey City RYE Beams and Heavy Stracturals ~ Lerge stocks—ell shepes, including Both structural end ber sizes in all” tl. special wige flange sections ke stendesd sections; siso gelvenized. “?. | Hoops end Bands 5% Bands, both plein. and, gaivenzed, | end ‘hogps In both coils and streight lengths ere catried In stock Rounds, squeres, flats, hexagons, ovel:, hall-ovels, helf-rounds,” etc Bers—Alll Shapes end Sizes +4 4 New rails with all accessories — Channels, Angles, Tees and Zees | Rails, Splices, Spikers, Bolts, Etc. stocked for immediate shipment vérious enalyses, Plotes Sheets 5 Standard steel plates, high carbon, Sheets for every purpose—from piel 4 Firebox steel, Armco and dia- black to Allegheny stainless, in hull mond pattern, teage of sures. Stocks that You Can Depend Meet Every Steel Requirement Cold Finished Steel Bers Flets, rounds, squares and hexegans in Accuracy, straight. Widths up to 12 inches in to 2” ness and sssufed. thicknesses ere carried im stock. ities, also cold rolled fat wire THE IRON AGE........MARCH 1934 - - Cat e, Ere. d strep hard qual wire. THE IRON AGE ... MARCH 1934 ESTABLISHED 1855 Vol. 133, No. DEPRESSION-WEARY country, which had long since abandoned hope return the business volume the prosperous 20’s, has had sudden but means rude awakening. The supposedly impossible happening. great in- dustry has come back. Demand for automobiles now exceeds days’ production—a better demand than has existed since 1929. What has happened the motor car trade spreading other lines. Better business creep- ing upon us. With has come the realization that recovery really our goal, that goal now within reach. Only poor leadership renewed dissension the ranks can arrest the cumulative recuperative forces now gathering momentum. The current Washington free-for-all for critics the NRA comes crucial time. succeeds undermining codes that have barely reached work- able basis, sets motion new offensive organized labor, progress toward recovery will halted. Codes cannot upset without bringing back all the competitive evils that the recovery program has attempted banish. Widespread industrial dis- putes cannot encouraged without crippling the productive forces that make higher wages and in- creased employment possible. time recall the main purpose the recov- ery act, which was stop price chiseling and spread work and raise wage standards. Business men have never lost sight this aim, and have labored wholeheartedly achieve it, regardless their opinions the wisdom the recovery pro- gram. far, labor has been the chief beneficiary what has been accomplished. Profits have been slow appear. But business men have not com- they have been good soldiers. The same cannot said organized labor. not satisfied with better wages and improved em- ployment, but demands nation-wide unionization well. Each successful drive for the closed shop has whetted its appetite for more power. And this very moment training its the great industry that gives promise leading out the depression. has unleashed strikes scattered points among automotive plants and has succeeded fomenting unrest throughout the ranks motor car workers, notwithstanding that their earnings are the best since 1929. The situation ominous, but means hope- less. broad breach industrial peace can averted resolute leadership Washington. With unprecedented prestige and power, the present Administration can hold labor check will. And has the courage will have the overwhelming support depression-worn coun- try. The American people have little sympathy for any class group pursuing “rule ruin” policy. They have little patience for those who persist rocking the boat recovery approaches port. LACHER , Managing Editor The Iron Age . // —> | = =f ] { = { fe : { ——no ord 2) from G-E Schenectady Works the Gen- eral Electric Co. unique sev- eral ways. First: owned industry and operated utility, and the installed capacity 26,000 kw. for the use the New York Power Light Co. and 650,000 lb. steam per hour for the use the General Electric Co. Second: mercury-vapor-steam plant with product the mercury-vapor cycle 325,000 lb. steam per hour and 20,- 000 kw. Third: outdoor sta- tion that the main bulk the steam and mercury boilers, the mercury and steam turbines and principal appur- tenances are entirely exposed the weather. Fourth: arc-welded station throughout—structure, boilers, piping and equipment. This paper devoted principally the A.S.M.E. Boiler Code welding applied boilers, piping and other pressure equipment. brief descrip- tion the station necessary order make clear the status the items coming within the scope the paper. new power station the Two boilers are installed side-by- side, each with its own complement coal-handling, storing, pulverizing and feeding equipment and other aux- One more less con- ventional steam boiler for producing 325,000 lb. steam per hour 400 750 deg. The other mercury- vapor boiler with capacity for operat- ing 20,000 kw. turbine. The upper portion its furnace has mercury walls and the lower portion has water walls which produce 85,000 steam per hour. The mercury vapor has pressure 140 the boiler and 125 lb. the turbine; the temperature 958 deg. The condenser-boilers (which are the condensers for the mercury turbine) and furnace walls deliver 325,000 lb. steam per hr. Steam transport lines involve miles high-pressure lines and water return lines carried tunnels and bridges the older power stations from which distributed for testing, manufacturing and heating. The structural work was fabricated and erected the American Bridge 8—The Iron Age, March 1934 ROGERS General Electric Co., Schenectady, Co., and the piping the Pittsburgh Piping Equipment Co. The mer- cury turbine equipment and accesso- ries were fabricated the General Electric plant. From the regular welding forces the General Electric through the Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection Insurance Co. for class welding. these, six were employed the Pittsburgh Piping Equipment Co. for four months erection work. Mercury Boilers Require Welding 3080 Tube Joints Detail specifications were prepared covering the procedure for qualifying electric power plant built the General Electric Co. Schenec- tady engineering development challenging interest. prin- ciple similar the pioneer mercury-vapor plant installed Hartford, Conn., 1923, but has more than times the kilowatt capacity. also somewhat dif- ferent construction and arrange- ment. Unique features include arc- welded fabrication all major units; and the code-welding the boilers, piping and other pressure equipment that dis- cussed this which was presented joint meeting the local sections the American So- ciety Mechanical Engineers and the American Welding Society, held New York, Jan 16. standing this work was the fab- rication the mercury boiler and almost mile 18-in. and 14-in. pipe designed deliver steam 400 Ib. and 750 deg. maximum rate 500,000 Steam Plant welders and for the shop and field welding well. The mercury boiler consists seven horizontal parallel drums welded pipe, 4-in. thick, suspended from trusses. Down hanging from each drum are 440 porcupine tubes welded inside the drum. spite the fact that the welders had work this diameter space under forced ventilation only two leaks de- veloped during hydrostatic test the 3080 tube joints Involved. The mer- cury liquid mercury furnace walls are examples intri- other heavy units code-welded the shop were the governor and safety valve body for the mercury turbine and the mercury turbine condensers. The piping involved carries liquid mercury, mercury vapor, steam 400 lb. 750 deg., water 600 lb. pressure well pipes for oil, gas, pulver- ized fuel and air. general, the pipe extra heavy and ranges from in. diameter. Flanges were avoided wherever possible; flangeless valves were used and long radius bends prevail the turns. High-Pressure Steam Lines Major Interest Among the many features inter- est, one the most important was the design the steam lines between the power station and the General Electric works. These lines convey steam for heating, turbine testing and for manufacturing purposes from the new power plant distributing points two old power stations. The total distance involved 3735 ft., requiring the installation 4865 ft. 14-in. high-pressure lines and 4433 ft. condensate return lines, mostly and in. Steam delivered 400 and 750 deg. maximum rate 500,000 lb. per hour. The trans- mission much energy through this distance together with the high temperatures, high pressures, and the accompanying expansion made this major piece work, interesting power stations world. The steam and return lines are car- 4 J { | Ey. { : | _ : ” ri { \ r 4 | and field seven suspended ring from tubes spite work leaks de- est the The mer- intri- mong the the safety turbine lensers. ies liquid 400 pressure pulver- the pipe from ges were flangeless radius Major inter- tant was between General convey sting and from the points The total requiring 14-in. tly and 400 1um rate trans- through the high and the problems work, the most the are Car- Fusion Welded ried reinforced concrete tunnel. Short sections where entry made the old power stations are carried skeleton bridges, because they cross various obstructions that precluded the service, the 14-in. high-pressure view (at right) General Electric mercury-steam-electric power station Schenectady, The installed capac- ity 26,000 kw. and 650,000 Ib. steam per hour. Broadside cross-section (below) through the C-E mercury-vapor-steam plant, show- ing arrangement the coal handling and pulverizing equipment, stacks, draft fans and ducts, mercury boiler, mercury con- denser boiler and other units. { { The Iron Age, March 1934—9 Shop welding one the two condenser boilers which, service, are stood end and con- nected the exhaust hoods the mercury turbine. The condensing the mercury vapor generates high-pressure steam. lines contain tons steam, trav- eling speed 4000 ft. per min. The temperature rise 750 deg. involves, the 4865 ft. 14-in. pipe, total linear expansion the neigh- borhood ft. with potential pipe thrust 400,000 lb. Without insula- tion, the radiation 750 deg. would the equivalent more than 20,000 kw. equal the total output the mercury turbine. These figures make evident the responsibility the anchorages, the expansion joints, the welded joints and the insulation. The high-pressure piping seam- less, has wall and the 35-ft. lengths weigh about 2300 lb. was tack welded form 200-ft. lengths, and the welding the joints was completed the sections were ro- tated. Position welds joined them flangeless slip expansion joints which turn were welded H-sections em- bedded the tunnel side wall, thus sealing packing used under light mechanical pressure the steam pressure tends press the truncated- cone rings against the pipe. The joint provides for in. expansion, which from in. actually used. Weld-fabricated compound roller supports are located under the pipe 25-ft. intervals. Approximately 90-deg. bends were used; those lead- ing the bridges are 12-ft. radius. general, anchor brackets were welded the short radius bends and turn H-frames embedded the concrete walls roof. Two kinds construction were used for the bridges. The parts near- est the tunnel are built carry the pipe suspension, allow for the expansion the vertical runs. The pipe next the buildings mounted top the bridges. continuous H-section laid between the bridge and the pipe order relieve the structure possible expansion strains. Should expansion joint the pipe fail slip, the strain will placed the practically independent H-sec- tion rather than bridge structure proper. During the transition period was necessary deliver steam for heat- ing factory buildings the boilers were being removed from one old sta- tion. This necessitated immediate insulation the pipes the bare Seven these drums, each with 440 welded- porcupine make the mercury boiler. Only two leaks developed during the hydrostatic tests the welds involved. 3 af | f 10—The Iron Age, March 1934 4 nts was ro- them which ons em- thus Self- light steam incated- ‘he joint which roller pipe tely lead- radius. were ids and the were near- rry the for the The tinuous bridge the strains. pipe placed H-sec- bridge was heat- boilers sta- nediate bare ums, ded- ibes, cury eaks the the Mercury vapor pipes (above) from seven drums two headers. The high temperature, 958 deg. F., introduced expansion problems that were met the use corrugated pipes. Welded pipe bend and anchor (at right) located where the 750-deg. steam line goes from the tunnel the bridge. pipe radiation would have dissipated most the heat. The insulation was completed before the joints were tested and upon applying the pressure then available, developed. Expansion Roller Support Stands Welded Place Stands for the expansion roller sup- ports were fabricated and welded place. The pipe was brought through the hatchways and hauled location trucks. Fusion rings in. wide in. thick, rolled from strip, were tack welded the delivery end each pipe, the welds being made the inside edge the ring within the pipe. The lengths were then lifted the stands and placed tem- porary roller dollies. Six with the last one cut make approx- imately 200 ft., including the chromium plated sliding section the expansion joint, were strongly tack-welded to- gether six points each joint. split gear was clamped on, and the 200-ft. length was rotated about ripheral speed little over in. per min., small adjustable-speed motor operating through gear re- ducer and chain. Welding roll joints involved five passes using heavily coated G-E W-21 electrodes, starting with 3/16 in. 200 amp. and finishing with in. 275 amp. After each pass the slag a 4 was chipped off with air tool which provided some peening effect. The first pass was laid straight and suc- ceeding passes were oscillated increas- ingly required fill the 60-deg. beveled groove. The last pass was slightly crowned and was about in. wide. All welding was done hand, using single-operator motor-generator sets. One Position Weld Each Expansion Joint Only one position weld was required each expansion joint, that being where the 200-ft. line was welded the stationary member the expan- sion joint. These position weids were made with G-E W-20 electrodes four passes. The weld passes were started the bottom the joint and finished the top, alternating the halves. The succeeding passes were started and finished staggered points prevent concentration starting and finishing joints. After the position welds, the roller dollies were removed and the roller support members were welded the (Concluded Page 58) —— 4 Expansion joint, roller support and anchor turn 18-in. pipe line the tunnel. The pipe chromium plated the joint. Joints are located every 200 ft. take care total expansion more than ft. The Iron Age, March its q f 4 { a | j ” | c 50% 0 i 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 NALYSIS production iron and steel decades, between 1870 and 1930, brings light the interesting fact that the rate growth slowing down ex- tremely rapid rate. Translated into terms future trend, the conclusion inescapable that, although use steel will con- tinue increase the years come, the average annual rate increase will gradually diminish. period approaching, sooner than perhaps generally suspected, when the steel industry will unable show satis- factory gains production over the long term. Three major factors, all pulling the same direction, are responsible for this outcome. The first well known every industry and normal occurrence the extent that TABLE POPULATION UNITED STATES—BY DECADES ciently, resembles distorted letter liken the left side church bell. The curve divided into three parts representing (1) the initial pe- riod slowly gathering impetus cor- responding the lip the bell; (2) the second period rapid growth, which advertising plays promi- nent part—the side the bell; and (3) the final period comparative stability when the industry longer capable growth, owing saturation. this period its mainte- nance entirely the result re- placement demand. This latter por- tion the curve the top the bell. some industries, this has been followed downward curve, completing the other half, the in- dustry died off owing some inven- tion competitive field. Examination Chart Annual Production Steel, clearly shows INCREASE FOR DECADE YEAR Population Continental United States 1870 | 38 ,655 ,000 1880 | 50 , 262 ,000 1900. 76,129,000 1910 92 , 267 ,000 1920. 106 ,000 1930. ,000 Forecast | 1940. 000 ae 139 , 400 ,000 1960. 145 ,000 ,000 1970 148 ,000 12—The Iron Age, March 1934 Actual Per Cent 11,607 ,000 30.0 12,794,000 25.5 20.8 16,138,000 21.2 14,276,000 15.5 ,000 15.0 7.8 5.6 4.0 3,000 ,000 2.1 DAVID POLAK Specialist Code Statistics Division Economic Research and Planning National Recovery Administration, Washington that the industry excep- tion this Gompertz trend line has been fitted the annual fig- ures and indicates that the industry well along point near the in- ception the third stabilization period. This means that result the operation natural forces the steel industry the future must ad- vance more slowly. example contributing factor the heavy de- mand for steel building new rail- roads which has given way re- placement orders almost entirely. The second major factor which will have important bearing the de- mand for steel future years population. Examination subse- quent charts will show that the rate annual increase population has progressively fallen off since 1880. further sharp falling off (based birth and death rates and immigra- recognized authorities. The popula- tion forecasting line upon which this study based composite sev- eral such estimates made qualified experts. Accompanying figures illustrate the extent the gradual falling off which has taken place the rate increase population continental United States. They point drastic fall- ing off, following 1930. The third major factor which will operate stabilize steel production future years lies the per capita demand. The rate increase per capita demand progressively diminished from decade decade = | | i — —4-—_ — - +— f | | | | | | | \ | | | | | | | : | | | | 4 * - q Planning Washington rtz trend fig- industry the in- bilization result orces the must ad- ample de- lew rail- re- irely. hich will the de- subse- the rate tion has 1880. mmigra- rding popula- this sev- qualified rate the which increase United tic fall- will capita per decade since 1870. continuation this trend the only reasonable expecta- tion. Table illustrates the extent which the rate increase per capita production iron and steel has diminished from decade decade. Each the three factors likely exert restraining influence the growth iron and steel production were allowed for estimating the future trends. The trend any pe- riod under consideration is, course, smooth curve closely fitting the data under review. The nature the “fit” such that the deviation the curve from the basic material less than the deviation any other curve that might fitted the series. fact this study will pointed out that the trend lines about which the yearly data fluctuate fit the original data with extreme accuracy. The projection the trends into the fu- ture are the most reasonable estimates Outlook lron and Steel over the long term, the production iron and steel, according scien- tific determination based past per- formance. cannot attempt fore- cast production any single year. The method followed fitting the trends both pig iron and steel ingots and castings was identical form. will briefly described here and treated greater detail else- where. For the time being, will suffice say that the production trends tons were obtained work- ing out trends pound-per-capita basis and multiplying the trend thus found actual population each year between 1873 and 1932, and estimated population subsequent years 1970, inclusive. use this method due allowance was made for decline rate increase use per capita and decline rate in- crease population growth. Further allowance was made for the decline rate increase production indi- cated previously application the am Chart right) Total and per capita production steel. Tons Pounds Per Capita ylatio® | | c + + + + + +— — 08 + +— + - 1 80 0.4 + + — +— —— + T 40 c | | 2 | | o wo ~ @ wo o o ao Gompertz* formula the data under review. This formula, when applied secular trend, describes distorted S-shaped curve arithmetic chart Chart left): paper corresponding the example Total and per capita cited above normal the life his- production pig iron. *The Law Growth Forecasting Demand Raymond Prescott, pub- lished the quarterly the American Statistical Association, Decem- ber, 1922, treats the theory and prac- 1880 1886 1894 1898 1904 1922 1928 1934 1910 1916 A 1946 1952 1958 tical application the use the Gompertz curve series which popula- tion factor. The Iron Age, March 1934—13 q . “si } abs | | | | | | } : | 4 = f oy TABLE Per INCREASE FOR Per Steel Ingots Pig Iron and Steel Ingots and Castings 1871-1880. 239.3 949.5 2,059.8 (d) Decrease. PRODUCTION, AND TEEL—POUNDS PER PITA—BY DECADES Pig Iron and Per Cent INCREASE FoR Steel Ingots Pig Iron and Ferroalloys and Castings Ferroalloys and Castings Ferroalloys 2,198.0 710.2 1,005.5 296.8 84.3 3,106.9 1,110.3 908.9 116.9 41.4 5,538.1 2,847.5 2,431.2 138.2 78.3 7,201.9 2,911.0 1,663.8 59.3 30.0 6,573.6 379.3 (d) 628.3 4.9 (d) 8.7 the above, the period 1891-1900 witnessed two severe depressions, which brought the production per capita below that the ensuing decade. tory every industry. Chart il- lustrated the shape the curve fitted production steel ingots and cast- ings. Pig Iron and Ferroalloys Table III presents for each year from 1870 1933 pig iron and ferro- alloy production, both total and per capita. also shows the calculated long term trends total and pound per capita basis. Population shown therein actual 1870 through 1932 and estimated ac- cording the method already out- lined for subsequent years. From the percentage deviations 1933 estimated from figures furnished THE IRON AGE. shown yearly determination can made the accuracy “fit” the trends each year. Over the period 1870 1933* the variation the actual from the calculated trend production pounds per capita amounted only 2.4 per cent. The material introduced Table III has been charted and presented Chart II. This ratio chart which equal distances the scale represent the same in- crease and similarly equal distances down the scale represent the same percentage decrease. The chart clearly delineates the fact that the rates increase actual production, per capita production and population are slowing down. TABLE IV. PIG IRON AND FERROALLOYS—GROSS TONS PER CAPITA TREND VOLUME AND PERCENTAGE INCREASE, FOR DECADES INCREASE Trend Gross Tons Per Capita Trend Gross Tons Per Capita Per Cent 0.9715 100.4 1900.... 1.6270 0.6555 67.5 2.3080 0.6810 41.9 1920.... 2.7900 20.9 1930... 3.0200 0.2300 8.2 1940..... 3.2300 0.2100 7.0 1950... 3.3900 0.1600 5.0 1960... 3.5000 0.1100 3.2 1970... 3.5700 0.07 2.0 TABLE PIG AND FERROALLOYS—ACTUAL AND TREND PRODUCTION POUNDS PER CAPITA PER CENT DEVIATION ACTUAL FROM TREND, FOR DECADES Production Pounds Per Capita DECADE | * o 1871-1880 1192.5 1881-1890 2198.0 3106.9 1901-1910 1911-1920. 7201.9 1921-1930 1931*.... 332.8 157.7 DEVIATION ACTUAL FROM TREND Trend Pounds Per Capita Pounds Per Capita Per Cent 67.5 29.1 43.2 1085.9 106.6 9.8 2175.9 22.1 1.0 3645.1 —538.2 —14.9 5192.4 345.7 6.7 6243.9 958.0 15.3 2.9 703.0 —52.7 708.0 —550.3 712.0 —476.5 —66.9 27300.7 667.1 2.4 Year only. 14—The Iron Age, March 1934 The forecasting line indicates that average production pig iron and ferroalloys likely advance per- centage only much the years between 1933 and 1964 did the previous years from 1919 1933. equivalent gain percentage was achieved years prior 1919 and progressively shorter periods back 1880 where the chart begins. Summarizations have been made the rates increase from decade decade. The summary covering popu- lation was included Table Table contained extract the rate increase production pig iron per capita between 1871 and 1930. Table shows the long term trend gross tons per capita pig iron and ferroalloys decades, and the percentage increase volume for each decade. extreme in- terest note that the actual increase gross tons indicated physical volume production progressively smaller each decade subsequent that ended 1910. these figures were stated terms single year, the average increase trend per year from 1930 1940 would only seven-tenths one per cent. Table test the accuracy the fit the trend decades over the period 1870 1933 and shows that, allowing for rounding great many figures, the extent the error the actual from the calculated trend pounds per capita only 2.4 per cent. ades, the volume production pig iron and ferroalloys gross tons, against the trend volume between 1870 and 1933. also indicates for each the next four decades ending with 1970 the total probable volume pig iron production. The deviation the actual production from the trend over the period 1870 through 1933 was only 3.9 per cent. The percentage increase the probable trend becomes successively smaller from decade decade, and, | | \ { | that that and per- years the and back ade ide popu- Table ate per term pig and in- ‘rease ysical sively year, per it. over hows error lated 2.4 dec- tons, ween for ding lume the 1870 cent. the vely and, TABLE PIG AND FERROALLOY PRODUCTION AND LONG-TERM TREND Pig Iron and Continental Per Pig Iron TREND Pig Iron FROM TREND Ferroalloys United Production Production Gross Ton States Pounds Per Gross Tons Gross Pounds Capita Per Cent Gross Tons Per Cent 67.5 29.1 43.2 1,167,000 498 ,000 42.7 1,707 39,815,000 96.1 74.0 22.1 29.9 1,314,000 393 ,000 29.9 2,561,000 42,134,000 136.2 88.0 48.2 54.8 1,654,000 ,000 54.8 2,401,000 124.3 95.0 29.3 30.8 30.8 2,024,000 44,454,000 .0456 102.2 102.6 — 04 — 0.4 2,038,000 |— 14,000 = 0.7 : ,000 ,000 99.0 119.0 20.0 —16.8 2,487,000 420 ,000 3,835,000 .0763 170.8 149.3 21.5 14.4 485 ,000 14.5 4,144,000 51,542,000 .0804 180.1 161.0 19.1 11.9 3,700,000 444,000 12.0 4,623,000 52,821,000 196.0 173.0 23.0 13.3 543 ,000 13.3 54,100,000 .0850 190.4 185.0 5.4 2.9 4,470,000 126 ,000 55,379,000 .0740 165.7 197.0 31.3 —15.9 4,870,000 6,417 ,000 59,217,000 1083 242.6 236.0 6.6 2.8 171,000 7,604,000 61,775,000 276.0 265.0 11.0 4.2 7,310,000 ,056 ,000 1460 327.0 278.5 48.5 17.4 17.2 7,125,000 970 ,000 1064 238.3 325.0 86.7 —26.7 9,720,000 2,595,000 1217 272.6 372.0 99.4 —26.7 11,780,000 3,157,000 74,799,000 420.0 12.1 2.9 14,030,000 409 ,000 13,789, 76,129,000 437.5 31.5 7.2 14,870,000 1,081,000 15,878,000 ,000 2041 457.1 452.0 §.1 ,000 1996 447.0 498.0 51.0 —10.2 18,370,000 1,873,000 84,219,000 2730 611.8 514.3 18.9 19,340,000 3,652, ,000 2950 661.0 530.0 131.0 24.7 4,707 ,000 25,781,000 2948 660.0 544.0 116.0 21.3 21,250,000 4,531,000 ,073 ,000 1789 401.0 557.0 156.0 —28.0 22,160,000 6,224,000 25,795,000 90,691,000 568.0 69.0 12.1 2,785,000 267 ,000 2961 579.1 84.4 14.6 ,870,000 3,434,000 2525 566.0 589.0 23.0 3.9 24,640,000 990 ,000 ,000 3209 718.5 608 110.5 18.2 26,190,000 4,776,000 29,916,000 .3013 675.0 624.9 50.1 8.0 102,173,000 3785 848.0 636.0 212.0 33.3 ,000 9,621,000 103 588 ,000 3770 844.8 641.0 203.8 31.8 ,000 31,015,000 105 ,003 ,000 2954 662.0 646.0 16.0 2.5 300 ,000 715,000 36,926,000 106,543,000 3465 776.0 651.0 19.2 ,000 108 ,000 1542 345.4 655.0 —47.3 31,600,000 |—14,912,000 109 873 ,000 2478 555.0 660.0 —105.0 —15.9 32,400,000 5,180,000 —16.0 810.2 665.0 145.2 21.8 21.9 ,000 3195 716.0 675.0 41.0 6.1 2,101,000 6.1 ,000 3377 756.5 679.0 77.5 11.4 4,073,000 11.5 119, 3184 713.5 25.5 3.7 800 ,000 3.7 42'614,000 121,526,000 786.0 693.0 93.0 13.4 5,014,000 31,752,000 2578 577.5 698.0 —120.5 38,200,000 6,448,000 —16.9 123 1485 332.8 703.0 —370.2 —52.7 38,800,000 13,213,000 125,700,000 235.5 712.0 —476.5 39,900,000 —66.9 Production partly estimated Iron Age. The Iron March 1934—15 5 ECADE and loys ~ | | | INCREASE TABLE VI. PRODUCTION PIG IRON AND FERROALLOYS—FOR DECADES—IN GROSS TONS INCREASE DEVIATION ACTUAL DECADE Actual Trend FROM TREND Actual Per Trend Per | Gross Tons Cent Gross Tons Cent | Gross Tons Per Cent 1901-1910. . 211,320,000 113,195,000 115.3 198,300,000 83 , 200 ,000 72.3 13,020,000 6.6 1921-1930. 340 837 ,000 18,194,000 5.6 349,550,000 70,270,000 25.1 8,713,000 2.5 Year only. TABLE VII. INTERCEPTS AT END OF EACH DECADE—PRODUCTION PIG IRON AND FERROALLOYS INCREASE INCREASE | Gross Tons Production Per | ‘Irend Per Gross Tons Per Capita Per Gross Tons Cent Gross Tons Cent Trend Cent | | Gross Tons ,000 ,000 140.0 7,850,000 134.3 0.1243 0.0577 18,789,000 4,586,000 49.8 14,870,000 7,020,000 89.4 0.1950 0.0707 56.9 ...-| 27,304,000 13,515,000 | 98.0 23,870,000 9,000 ,000 60.5 0.2580 0.0630 32.3 1920 36,926,000 9,622,000 35.2 30,950,000 7,080,000 29.7 0.2910 0.0330 12.8 1930 ..| 31,752,000 *14.0 7,250,000 23.4 0.3120 0.0210 7.2 1950..... | 48 ,000 ,000 4,300,000 9.8 0.3440 0.0130 3.9 61,200,000 3,200,000 6.7 0.3530 0.0090 2.6 Decrease. taken average yearly basis, from increase 1.8 per cent an- nually from 1931-1940, rapidly dwindles only 0.5 per cent per year from 1961-1970. While, course, quite impos- sible state years advance just exactly what the production pig iron steel going be, either for single year even for decade, nevertheless these figures, based highly scientific method approach, have shown remarkable degree accuracy for the period 1870-1933 which actual results can checked against the trend line. estimate future production, they are per- haps degree more accurate than many forecasts heretofore less scien- tifically made, and for that reason alone should comparatively more importance reasoning toward conclusion terms control in- creases capacity and return in- vested capital. Table VII interest because attempts “spot” the probable trend pig iron production, both actual gross tons and gross tons per capita for each decade year, and shows the per cent increase between the in- tercepts (trend values) for each dec- ade. This table not intended 16—The Iron Age, March 1934 estimate actual production any dec- ade year; the most can show for any decade year the percentage increase trend since the previous intercept. There can remain little doubt that the rate increase production pig iron has been slowing down since 1870. Indications are that this slow- ing down will continue into the fu- ture, that 1970 the yearly rate increased growth will practically nil. Steel Ingots and Castings, 1870-1970 The statistical treatment steel ingot and casting production must necessarily identical with that pig iron. Chart III shows the actual production steel well the trend steel production, both mil- lions tons and pounds per capita. Nineteen Thirty-three production partly estimated the basis fig- ures supplied THE IRON This chart also shows actual population between 1880 and 1932 and forecast- ing lines far ahead the year Iron with Chart III Steel brings out the interesting fact that the trend iron production has increased somewhat slower rate than did that TABLE IX. 1880. 0.1158 1890 0.4061 1900 1.0740 1910 2.1300 1920 3.1650 1930 3.8050 1940 4.3700 1950 4.8500 1960 5.1900 } Trend Gross Tons | Per Capita STEEL INGOTS AND CASTINGS—GROSS TONS PER CAPITA, TREND VOLUME AND PERCENTAGE INCREASE, FOR DECADES = = = INCREASE Trend Gross Tons Per Capita Per Cent 0.2903 250.9 0.6679 164.6 1.0560 98.4 1.0350 48.6 0.6400 20.2 0.5650 14.9 4800 11.0 0.3400 7.0 0.2400 4.6 | f | — 4 | | | | | | | Pa | © | , | | ‘ Cent to hat actual mil- ion fig- This lation ecast- year Pig trend TABLE VIII. STEEL INGOT AND CASTINGS PRODUCTION AND LONG-TERM TREND 1908..... 1909 1910 1913 1914... 1916... 1917 1918 1919. 1920. 1921... 1922 1923 1950 1952 1953 1955 1956 1957 1958... 1962 1963 1964. 1965 1966 1968 Production Steel Ingots and Castings Gross Tons ,000* 143 ,000 199 ,000 533 ,000 569 ,000 935 ,000 ,000 1,674,000 1,551 ,000 1,712,000 4,412,000 6,115,000 ,000 13,474,000 14,947 ,000 14,535,000 ,363 ,000 ,676 ,000 31,251,000 32,151,000 34,671,000 ,000 44,944,000 51,544,000 ,000 ,000 Population Continental United States 42,134,000 ,933 ,000 ,093 ,000 51,542,000 54,100,000 ,000 ,937 ,000 70,885,000 2,189,000 79,365,000 80 , 983 ,000 84,219,000 837 ,000 455 ,000 267 ,000 ,682 ,000 ,097 ,000 ,343 ,000 103 ,588 ,000 105 ,003 ,000 106 ,000 108 ,000 114,867 ,000 118,197,000 119, 121,526,000 124,700,000 125,700,000 000 132,000,000 ,000 133 ,600 ,000 135,200,000 ,000 136 ,600 ,000 137 , 300 ,000 138 ,000 ,000 ,000 140 ,600 ,000 400 ,000 143 ,000 000 143 144,000 ,000 ,000 146 200 ,000 146 146 800 ,000 147 100,000 147 147 147 ,000 148 ,000 ,000 Production estimated The Iron Age PRODUCTION Per Gross Tons .0308 .0280 2378 2725 2671 1575 2829 2528 2402 . 4290 3952 1828 3352 2090 1097 1865 | Trend Steel Production Pounds Per Capita go | to DevraTION PRODUCTION Per FROM TREND No. Pounds to OWWN erees ~ wna Per Cent bo — On Nw Noo 1 Trend Steel Production Gross Tons 220 ,000 301 367 429 648 ,000 748 ,000 877 ,000 1,053 ,000 1,594,000 ,000 7,820,000 8,640,000 ,000 ,000 2,490,000 3,680 ,000 4,900 ,000 6, 160,000 18,770,000 23,010,000 24,500,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 1 1 1 1 300 ,000 800 ,000 ,000 44,700,000 ,000 47 ,300 ,000 48 ,600 ,000 ,000 52,100,000 800 400 ,000 ,000 71,600 ,000 74,600 75,900 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,600 ,000 78,100,000 ,600 ,000 500 400 ,000 151,000 FROM TREND Gross Tons 104,000 102 ,000 ,000 392 ,000 323 ,000 ,000 255,000 343,000 639 211,000 174,000 636 ,000 112,000 1,630 160 ,000 984 365 ,000 2.300,000 2,574,000 7,537,000 945 — 2,264,000 2,611,000 871 ,000 10,194,000 1,379,000 ,000 —18,516,000 3,997,000 4,144,000 4,168,000 3,594,000 1,065,000 4,244,000 9,101,000 | —29,750,000 6.6 | The Iron Age, March 1934—17 TABLE STEEL INGOTS AND CASTINGS—ACTUAL AND TREND PRODUCTION POUNDS PER CAPITA, PER CENT | DEVIATION ACTUAL FROM TREND, DEVIATION ACTUAL FROM TREND Pounds Per Pounds Per Capita Capita Pounds Per Capita Per Cent 3.8 9.9 6.1 —61.6 1871-1880 239.3 259.5 20.2 7.8 1881-1890 909.9 39.6 1891-1900 2059.8 2408.1 1901-1910 4907 4770.7 136.6 2.9 1911-1920 7818.3 7090.7 727.6 10.3 1921-1930 8197.6 8522.0 —324.4 3.8 468.4 923.0 —49.2 417.7 949.0 —531.3 *Year only. steel. will noted that the trend crease from decade decade. Popu- lines production steel crossed those pig iron about the year 1909, and since then yearly steel produc- tion, both total and pounds per capita, has been greater than pig iron output. will also noted from the charts (II and III) that the increase future trend steel production slows down less rapid rate than does that pig iron. The material presented Chart III given Table VIII. This table presents also the calculated long- term trends tonnage and pound per capita basis. From the percent- age deviations shown yearly, de- termination can made the ac- curacy fit the trends each year. For determination the ac- curacy the the trend over the whole term, including estimate 1933 output, reference will made Table Summarizations have al- ready been made the rates in- FOR DECADES lation was covered Table and Steel Production Table II. Table indicates the extent which the increase the long term trend volume production for each decade has progressively decreased, and also indicates the extent the probable diminishing increase through- out the next four decades far 1970. The average annual increase between 1930 and 1940 estimated only per cent. Future decades show much smaller average annual increment; that 1960-1970, from present indications, will less than one-half one per cent. Table test the “fit” the trend against actual steel produc- tion expressed pounds per capita. Between 1870 and 1933 the variation was only 5.5 per cent. Table XI, actual production gross tons steel ingots and cast- ings compared with the calculated trend values for decades between 1870 and 1933. The deviation the actual tonnage only 6.7 per cent from the calculated trend. This table (No. XI) also compares for successive decades the percentage increase volume production, both actual and for the trend. fu- ture decades ending with 1961-1970, the percentage increase the trend becomes progressively smaller. One way view the dwindling in- crease rate would average annual basis one-tenth the decade increase. This indicates that, from 2.7 per cent average annual increase which forecast between 1930-1940, the growth rate will decrease only 0.76 per cent per year between 1960 and 1970. Table XII interest because attempts “spot” the probable trend values gross tons and pounds per capita steel ingot and casting pro- duction for the decade years. also shows the percentage increase the trend values between the inter- cepts the decade years. does not, course, indicate actual produc- tion any these years. The foregoing surveys pig iron and steel production point out very conclusively the fact that between 1870 and 1933 the rate increase has been progressively slowing down. That this decrease growth rate will continue seems logical con- clusion, particularly because: (1) Per capita demand has gradually diminished; (2) Replacement demand has become important compared with de- mand for new uses; (3) Population increasing slower rate and likely turn downward. The point involved this study not the exemplification exercise statistical method, but attempt TABLE XI. PRODUCTION STEEL INGOTS AND CASTINGS—FOR DECADES—IN GROSS TONS DEVIATION ACTUAL DECADE Actual Increase Per Trend Increase Per FROM Tons Actual Cent Gross Tons Trend Cent Gross Tons Gross Tons Gross Tons Per Cent 1881-1890. ,000 391.0 23,745,000 18,354,000 340.9 4.1 187 ,674,000 122,095,000 186.2 182,680,000 138.8 4,994,000 2.7 850,993,000 87.0 317 134,940,000 73.8 ,000 10.5 Year only. 18—The Iron Age, March 1934 f 4 i 4 | | | | | 2 > per cent \ TABLE XII. INTERCEPTS AT END GF EACH DECADE—PRODUCTION STEEL INGOTS AND CASTINGS | LAS 4 vercentage pour | INCREASE INCREASE INCREASE roduction, Drecape ENpep Production | Trend Trend Gross Actual Per Gross Tons Actual Per Gross Tons Per Capita Per fu- Production Cent Trend Cent Trend Cent 1961-1970 Gross Tons Cross Tons Gross Tons 1900 | 10,188,000 5,911,000 | 138.2 11,430,000 7,470,000 188.7 0.1501 0. O873 139.0 42,133,000 16,038,000 | 61.5 37 , 100,000 12,600 ,000 51.4 0.3485 0.0831 31.3 * Decrease only veen 1960 ible trend per ting pro- also crease inter- does produc- pig iron out very between rease has down. rate will ical con- rradually become with de- ata turn study exercise attempt ACTUAL Per Cent obtain long-range view the future. Having obtained this view which leads the belief that the steel industry fast approaching stability, some benefit the industry may re- sult present policies are shaped accordance with the little that our dim sight can foreseen. Methods Used Calculating the Trends The yearly pounds, per capita, pig iron and steel, between 1873 and 1932 were each averaged groups five years. The averages were cen- The trends conform the formulae given below. Normal trend production, steel ingots and castings well for pig iron 1870-1970, was multiplying actual population year between 1870 and 1930 and esti- mated population between 1931 and 1970 the normal trend produc- tion per capita. each Yearly production pig iron and ferroalloys, well ingots and castings, were obtained the majority years from the official publications the American Iron and LOGARITHMIC PARABOLA FORMULA log y=a+t br + cx? Steel Ingots a = 9973 b6 = 3533 c = —.0164 tered the middle year each group (i. e., 1873-1877 centered 1875, and 1928-1932 centered 1930). each the resulting series averages were fitted logarithmic parabola and Gompertz curve. The results were plotted arithmetic paper. Between 1870 and 1917 parabola, each case, was adopted the normal trend; between 1936 and 1970 the Gompertz curve was adopted the long-term forecast- ing trend. Between 1917 and 1936 the trends were joined straight line drawn tangent the two por- tions already accepted. the trends were plotted against the center year each five-year group, intermediate values were read off for individual years and irregu- larities smoothed. GoMPERTZ CURVE Pig [ron Steel Ingots Pig Iron 8292 3.1194 2.9178 1911 log —1.8176 9134 0093 log 8033 7968 Steel Institute and its predecessor, the American Iron and Steel Associa- tion. Progress New Steel Works INAL stages prior actual pro- duction have now been reached the new plant the Iron and Industrial Corpn., Ltd., Pretoria West the Transvaal, according report the Commerce Department from Commercial Attache Day. The coke ovens have already been fired and the first coke was pro- duced about Feb. the report states. Fires have also been lighted the blast furnaces, which are slowly ing brought maximum tempera- ture. Train loads ore from the corporation’s iron mine zimbe are arriving the steel works daily. Along with the production its first coke, the new steel plant will produce its first series by-products, including benzol, tar, ammonia and naphthalene. expected that South Africa’s new industrial undertaking will turn out its first actual steel about the end March, according the re- port. When full operation the works will employ about 1200 men, the majority whom have already arrived. German Rolling Mill Production Increases ERMAN mill production during 1933 increased about per cent compared with the pre- ceding year, according report from vice consul Wright, Cologne, made public the Com- merce Department. Total sales finished products dur- ing 1933 amounted 5,463,233 metric while semi-manufactures for sale, amounting 543,138 metric tons, brought the year’s total 6,- 006,371 metric tons. The aggregate total 1932 was 4,552,848 metric tons. With the exception slight de- creases the production universal iron and medium plate, all principal groups production registered in- creases 1933 compared with 1932, the report points out. tons, German rolling mill production December, was per cent higher than that for December, 1932. Out- put finished and semi-manufactured products during December, 1933, to- taled metric tons compared with 390,355 metric tons Decem- ber, 1982. Outstanding increases rolling mill production during 1933, the re- port shows, occurred the case “railway “shapes over millimeters height and universal iron,” “rods and small shapes,” “hoop iron,” “rolled wire,” and “tubes.” The Age, March 1934—19 - ear | 0.8 —14.2 2.7 10.5 3.4 —49.0 —73. —55.9 —<—<—<—< | — } EVELOPMENT the steel in- dustry the Soviet Union re- quired construction number blast furnaces which, designed and built “mass-production” basis, substantially duplicates each other, offered attractive pos- sibilities for economies. These economies were even more impor- tant under Russian than under American conditions. Government ownership and centralized control made possible the avoidance considered possible design standard typical blast furnace which might adapted, slight changes, differences site conditions, raw product. best indicated the accompany- ing table. With the exception Lipetsk and Tula, all these fur- races are located existing pro- jected steel works considerable magnitude, which are now under con- struction. For the time being, the furnaces Lipetsk and Tula will the nature merchant furnaces. The Gipromez standard blast fur- nace nominally 1000-ton unit. While the standard blast furnace nominally rated 1000 tons, the de- termining elements sufficient marginal capacity permit possible outputs perhaps 1200 tons later date when favorable operating conditions have been organized. The more prominent factors which led the choice this size were given the following paragraphs. program for construction 20—The Iron Age, March 1934 Panorama furnaces Vorogshiloff. No. furnace left and No. Soviet Standardizes modern furnace was required, having the advantages low con- struction and operation costs per unit output which accrue large units. The 1000-ton unit was considered the maximum sufficiently well es- tablished contemporary practice elsewhere. The conditions which will at- tend the operation these furnaces, least initially, did not justify the adoption extremes. Most the furnaces are located entirely new plants which operating must organized and trained. Avail- able transportation equipment does not favor large tonnage operations. Maintenance facilities must devel- oped. Initially, least, more than normal delays may expected. Flexibility was desired per- mit adaptation both ores and Sovfoto) 2 «ai t 4 | t Bis “ ’ Two “standard” furnaces Azovstal. lo. furnace center are the “standard” type. extreme right the old furnace plant. product. The characteristics the ores available for burdening through the life the furnaces were some cases rather indefinite. case was there experience previous performance these ores large than furnaces. Studies involving all factors in- dicated that plants medium size, where most the standard blast fur- naces will located, three four bn Azovsta The furnace right now operation. Furnace Design moderate sized units have many prac- tical advantages providing plant metal balance continuity mate- rial movements, minimizing coal, coke and pig iron stocking, and in- surance uniformity gas supply. These factors are particular im- rortance most the new Russian plants where about per cent the open-hearth charge will hot metal and where blast furnace and coke- GORDON FOX and OWEN RICE Metallurgical Engineer Freyn Engineering Co. Vice-President Freyn Engineering Co. oven gas are the prime source heat for mill operations. The brick lines for the standard blast furnace were developed particu- larly with ores from the Krivoirog district mind. number the new furnaces will use Krivoirog hema- tites, which are similar general character our Lake Superior ores. Most the new furnaces are based using coke produced from the Don ~ The Age, March - — Bas coal, which now will continue high sulphur (about 1.75 per cent). Russian fur- nace operation this district will committed high slag volumes. Principal dimensions the stand- ard blast furnace with typical ing will tabulated page 23. the standard arrangement for blast furnace department comprising several blast furnaces, the furnaces and cast houses are line, with the tracks parallel thereto. Except for end furnaces, adjacent furnaces have common cast house and common stove block. Three tracks are provided under the skip inclines the cinder side. Slag can hauled either direction from the spotting points. Tron ladles are spotted stub tracks under the cast house floor, ar- ranged either right left hand, ac- cording the location the steel works. Stub tracks also serve the dust catcher. Three tracks are provided this side the furnace. Where more than six furnaces will cross-over tracks will provided be- tween the sixth and seventh furnaces. stoves and Economies Straight-Line Arrange- ment The straight-line arrangement blast furnaces shows both investment Iron