The United States and the future of the Anglo-Saxon race, by Rev. Josiah Strong; and The growth of American industries and wealth, by Michael G. Mulhall.

Strong, Josiah. "'The United States and the future of the Anglo-Saxon race. ^S^^S^^ff^ University of California Southern Regional Library Facility THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE I D THE FUTURE OF THE ANGLO-SAXON RACE; AND THE Growth of American Industries and Wealth. SAXON AND O 33, BOUVERIE STREET, LONDON, E.C. 1889. ONE SHILLING. ta? TEE UNITED STATES AND THE Future of the Anglo-Saxon Race, BY REV. JOSIAH STRONG, D.D. ; AND THE Growth of American Industries and Wealth. MICHAEL G: MULHALL, F.S.S., Autlior of "T&e Dictionary of Statistics" "The Balance Sheet of the World," ''The History of Prices," etc. SAXON AND CO., 23, BOUVERIE STREET, LONDON, E.G. 1889. ONE SHILLING. LONDON ALFRED BOOT AND SON, PRINTERS, 24, OL1) BAILKY, E.C. PREFACE. The following chapters, dealing with the resources and possibilities of the United States and the future of the Anglo-Saxon race, are taken, by permission, from the 12 5th edition of the work entitled "Our Country," by Rev. Josiah Strong, D.D., of New York City. The chapters selected contain so remarkable and graphic a presentation of the possibilities of the future that they will be read with interest throughout the Anglo-Saxon world. The paper read before the British Association at Us last meeting at Bath by the eminent statistical authority, Michael G. Mulhall, F.S.S., is also included in the same volume. THE UNITED STATES AND THE Future of the Anglo-Saxon Race. CHAPTER I. NATIONAL RESOURCES. IT is necessary to the argument to show that the United States is capable of sustaining a vast population. The fathers on Massachusetts Bay once decided that population was never likely to be very dense west of Newton (a suburb of Boston), and the founders of Lynn, after exploring ten or fifteen miles, doubted whether the country was good for anything farther west than that. Until recent times, only less inadequate has been the popular conception of the transmissouri region and the millions destined to inhabit it. Of late years, home missionary writers and speakers have tried to astonish us into some appreciation of our national domain. Yet it may well be doubted whether even he who has pondered most upon its magnitude has a " realizing sense " of it. Though astonishing comparisons have ceased to astonish, I know of no means more effective or more just by which to present our physical basis of empire. What, then, should we say of a republic of eighteen states each as large as Spain ; or one of thirty-one states, each as large as Italy ; or one of sixty states, each as large as England and Wales? What a confederation of 6 NATIONAL RESOURCES. nations ! Take five of the six first-class Powers of Europe, Great Britain and Ireland, France, Germany, Austria, and Italy ; then add Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Denmark, and Greece. Let some greater than Napoleon weld them into one mighty empire, and you could lay it all down in the United States west of the Hudson River, once, and again, and again — three times. Well may Mr. Gladstone say that we have " a natural base for the greatest continuous empire ever established by man ; " and well may the English premier add : " And the distinction between continuous empire and empire severed and dis- persed over sea is vital." l With the exception of Alaska our territory is compact, and though so vast, is unified by railways and an unequaled system of rivers and lakes. The latter, occupying a larger area than Great Britain and Ireland, are said to contain nearly one-half of all the fresh water on the globe. We are told that east of the Rocky Mountains we have a river-flow of more than 40,000 miles (i.e., 80,000 miles of river-bank), counting no stream less than a hundred miles in length ; while Europe in a larger space has but 1 7,000 miles. It is estimated 2 that the Mississippi, with its affluents, affords 35,000 miles of navigation. A steamboat may pass up the Mississippi and Missouri, 3,900 miles from the Gulf — " as far as from New York to Constantinople." 3 Thus a " vast system of natural canals " carries our sea-board into the very heart of the continent. But what of the resources of this great empire which makes so brave a display on the map? Alaska is capable of producing great wealth, but not including this 1 Kin Beyond the Sea, 2 Encyclopedia Britannica. 3 Dr. Goodell. NATIONAL RESOURCES. 7 territory, the area of the United States, according to the census of 1880, is 2,970,000 square miles. According to the smallest estimate I have ever seen (and doubtless too small), we have 1,500,000 square miles of arable land. China proper, which, according to her last census, supports a population of 360,000,000, has an area of 1,348,870 square miles, or considerably less than one-half of ours, not including Alaska. The Chinese could hardly be called a manufacturing people ; and when their last census was taken (1812), their foreign commerce was inconsiderable. That vast population, therefore, drew its support from the soil. The mountains of China occupy an area of more than 300,000 square miles, and some of her plains are barren. It would seem, then, that our arable lands, taking the lowest estimate, are in excess of those of China by some hundreds of thousands of square miles. The fact, therefore, that Chinese agriculture, with its rude implements, feeds hundreds of millions ought, certainly, to be suggestive to Americans. The crops of 1879, after feeding our 50,000,000 in- habitants, furnished more than 283,000,000 bushels of grain for export. The corn, wheat, oats, barley, rye, buckwheat and potatoes — that is, the food crops, were that year produced on 105,097,750 acres, or 164,215 square miles. But that is less than one-ninth of the smallest estimate of our arable lands. If, therefore, it were all brought under the plow it would feed 450,000,000 and afford 2,554,000,000 bushels of grain for export. But this is not all. So excellent an authority as Mr. Edward Atkinson says that where we now support 50,000,000 people, "one hundred million could be sus- tained without increasing the area of a single farm, or 8 NATIONAL RESOURCES. adding one to their number, by merely bringing our product up to our average standard of reasonably good agriculture; and then there might remain for export twice the quantity we now send abroad to feed the hungry jn foreign lands." If this be true (and it will hardly be questioned by any one widely acquainted with our wasteful American farming), 1,500,000 square miles of cultivated land — less than one-half of our entire area this side of Alaska — are capable of feeding a population of 900,000,000, and of producing an excess of 5,100,000,000 bushels of grain for exportation ; or, if the crops were all consumed at home, it would feed a population one-eighth larger ; viz., 1,012,000,000. This corresponds very nearly with results obtained by an entirely different process from data afforded b" the best scientific authority. l It need not, therefore, make a very severe draught on credulity to say that our agricultural resources, if fully developed, would sustain a thousand million souls. But we have wonderful wealth under the soil as well as in it From 1870 to 1880 we produced $732,000,000 of the precious metals. The United States now raises OL e-half the gold and silver of the world's supply. Iron ore is to-day mined in twenty-three of our States. A number of them could singly supply the world's demand. Our coal measures are simply inexhaustible. English coal-pits, already deep, are being deepened, so that the cost of coal-mining in Great Britain is constantly increas- ing, while we have coal enough near the surface to supply us for centuries. When storing away the fuel for the ages, God knew the place and work to which He had 1 See Encyclopedia Britannica, Vol. i, p. 717. NATIONAL RESOURCES. 9 appointed us, and gave to us twenty times as much of this concrete power. as to all the peoples of Europe. Among the nations ours is the youngest — the Benjamin — and, Benjamin-like, we have received a five-fold portion. Surely "He hath not dealt so with any people." Our *nineral products are of unequaled richness and variety. The remarkable increase from 1870 to 1880 l places us at the head of the nations. Our mining industries exceed those of Great Britain three per cent, and are greater than those of all continental Europe, Asia, Africa, South America, Mexico, and the British Colonies collectively; and, as yet, we have hardly begun to develop these resources. Thousands of square miles of mineral wealth lie wholly untouched. Let us glance at our manufactures, present and pro- spective. Our first great advantage is found in our super- abounding coal. Our second lies in the fact that we have our raw material at hand. England must go at least 3,000 miles for every cotton boll she spins; we raise our own. And mills are now being built in the South which manufacture the cotton where it is grown. We produce also the wool, the woods, the hides, the metals of every sort, all that is required for nearly every variety of manu- facture. The remaining advantage, which crowns our opportunity, is the quality of our labor, American opera- tives being, as a class, the most ingenious and intelligent in the world. Inventiveness has come to be a national 1 Mulhall. Iron ore, tons 1870. 4, s 00,000 1880. Q,1? OO,OOO Increase. no per cent. 12,700 2O,3OO 60 Coal ,, Petroleum, gallons ... 33,000,000 42,000,000 55,000,000 860,000,000 66 „ zo-fold. 10 NATIONAL RESOURCES. trait. The United States Government issues four times as many patents as the English. From the Patent Office in Washington there were issued, during 1884, 20,297 patents. At the International Electrical Exposition in Paris, a few years ago, five gold medals were given for the greatest inventions or discoveries. How many of them, think you, came to the United States? Only five. The Mechanical World, of London, says that the United States has the best machinery and tools in the world; and Mr. Lourdelot, who was recently sent over here by the French Minister of Commerce, says that the supe- riority of tools used here, and the attention to details too often neglected in Europe, are elements of danger to European industries. Herbert Spencer testifies that "Beyond question, in respect of mechanical appliances, the Americans are ahead of all nations." 1 The fact of superior tools would alone give us no small advantage, but the possession of the best machinery implies much more; viz., that we have also the best mechanics in the world. In close competition, any one of the three advantages enumerated ought to insure ultimate supremacy; the coincidence, then, of these three great essentials of manufactures, each in such signal measure as to con- stitute together a triple advantage, must deliver over to us the markets of the world. Already have we won the first rank as a manufacturing people, our products in 1880 having exceeded even those of Great Britain by $650,000,000. So soon is Mr Gladstone's prophecy, 1 For much additional and weighty testimony to the same point, see report of Massachusetts Bureau of Statistics of Labor for 1 879, pp. xiii and xiv. NATIONAL RESOURCES. II uttered five or six years ago, finding its fulfilment. Speaking of the United States, he said : " She will probably become what we are now, the head servant in the great household of the world, the employer of all employed, because her service will be the most and ablest." And it is interesting to note not only our posi- tion, but our rate of progress. While the manufactures of France, from 1870 to 1880, increased $230,000,000, those of Germany $430,000,000, and those of Great Britain $580,000,000, those ot the United States increased $1,030,000,000. l Moreover, the marked advantages which we now enjoy are to be enhanced. While England's coal is growing dearer, ours will be growing cheaper. The development of our vast resources will greatly increase, and hence cheapen, raw materials. The superior inge- nuity and intelligence of our mechanics and operatives, which enable us now to compete with the cheaper labor of Europe, will continue to give us better machinery, while our rapidly increasing population will cheapen labor. Even now, with cheap labor against us, we can lay down our steels in Sheffield, our lower grades of cotton in Manchester, our electro-plate in Birmingham, and our watches in Geneva, and undersell European manufacturers on their own doorsills. What, then, may we reasonably expect when, with a dense population, cheap labor is no longer against us ? And while our manufactures are growing, our markets are to be greatly extended. Steam and elec- tricity have mightily compressed the earth. The elbows of the nations touch. Isolation — the mother of barbarism — is becoming impossible. The mysteries of Africa are 1 Our total agricultural products for 1880 were 82,625,0)00,000 ; our manufactures for the same year were $4,440,000,000. 12 NATIONAL RESOURCES. being laid open, the pulse of her commerce is beginning to beat. South America is being quickened, and the dry bones of Asia are moving ; the warm breath of the Nine- teenth Century is breathing a living soul under her ribs of death. The world is to be Christianized and civilized. There are about 1,000,000,000 of the world's inhabitants who do not enjoy a Christian civilization. Two hundred millions of these are to be lifted out of savagery. Much has been accomplished in this direction during the past seventy-five years, but much more will be done during the next fifty. And what is the process of civilizing but the creating of more and higher wants 1 Commerce follows the missionary. Five hundred American plows went to the native Christians of Natal in one year. The millions of Africa and Asia are some day to have the wants of a Christian civilization. The beginnings of life in India demand $12,000,000 worth of iron manufactures, and $1,000,000,000 worth of cotton goods in a single year. What will be the wants of Asia a century hence ? A Christian civilization performs the miracle of the loaves and fishes, and feeds its thousands in a desert It multiplies populations. A thousand civilized men thrive where a hundred savages starved. What, then, will be the population and what the wants of Africa a century hence ? And with these vast continents added to our market, with our natural advantages fully realized, whai is to prevent the United States from becoming the mighty workshop of the world, and our people " the hands of mankind ? " If it is not unreasonable to believe that our agricul- tural resources alone, when fully developed, are capable of feeding 1,000,000,000, then surely, with our agricul- WESTERN SUPREMACY. 13 tural and mining and manufacturing industries all fully developed, the United States can sustain and enrich such a population. Truly has Matthew Arnold said • "America holds the future." CHAPTER II. WESTERN SUPREMACY. " I NEVER felt as if I were out of doors before ! " ex- claimed a New Englander, as he stepped off the cars west of the Mississippi for the first time. The West is characterized by largeness. Mountains, rivers, railways, ranches, herds, crops, business transac- tions, ideas ; even men's virtues and vices are cyclopean. All seem to have taken a touch of vastness from the mighty horizon. Western stories are on the same large scale, so large, indeed, that it often takes a dozen eastern men to believe one of them. They have a secret suspicion that even the best attested are inflated exaggera- tions, which, pricked by investigation, would burst, leav- ing behind a very small residuum of fact. It will be necessary, therefore, to glance rapidly at the resources of the West, in order to show that it will eventually domi- nate the East. And by " the West " I mean that portion of the country lying west of the Mississippi, not including Alaska, unless so specified ; for, though that territory has vast resources, which will some day add much to our wealth, the national destiny is to be settled this side of Alaska. Of the twenty-two states and territories west of the Mississippi only three are as small as all New England. 14 WESTERN SUPREMACY. Montana would stretch from Boston on the east to Cleveland on the west, and extend far enough south to include Richmond, Va. Idaho, if laid down in the East, would touch Toronto, Can., on the north, and Raleigh, N.C., on the south, while its southern boundary line is long enough to stretch from Washington City to Columbus, O. ; and California, if on our Atlantic sea- board, would extend from the southern line of Massa- chusetts to the lower part of South Carolina ; or, in Europe, it would extend from London across France and well into Spain. New Mexico is larger than the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. The greatest measurement of Texas is nearly equal to the distance from New Orleans to Chicago, or from Chicago to Boston. Lay Texas on the face of Europe, and this giant, with his head resting on the mountains of Norway, (directly east of the Orkney Islands), with one palm covering London, the other Warsaw, would stretch him- self down across the kingdom of Denmark, across the empires of Germany and Austria, across Northern Italy, and lave his feet in the Mediterranean. Dakota might be carved into a half-dozen kingdoms of Greece ; or, if it were divided into twenty-six equal counties, we might lay down the two kingdoms of Judah and Israel in each. Place the 50,000,000 inhabitants of the United States in 1880 all in Texas, and the population would not be as dense as that of Germany. Put them in Dakota, and the population would not be as dense as that of England and Wales. Place them in New Mexico, and the density of population would not be as great as that of Belgium. Those 50,000,000 might all be comfortably sustained in Texas After allowing, say 50,000 square miles WESTERN SUPREMACY. 1 5 for " desert," Texas couid have produced all our food crops in 1879 — grown, as we have seen, on 164,215 square miles of land — could have raised the world's supply of cotton, 12,000,000 bales, at one bale to the acre, on 19,000 square miles, and then have had remaining, for a cattle range, a territory larger than the State of New York. Accounting all of Minnesota and Louisiana west of the Mississippi, for convenience, we have, according to the census of iSSo,1 2,115,135 square miles in the West and 854,865 in the East. That is, for every acre east of the Mississippi we have nearly two and a half west of it. But what of the " Great American Desert," which occupied so much space on the map a generation ago ? It is nomadic and elusive ; it recedes before advancing civilization like the Indian and buffalo which once roamed it. There are extensive regions, which, because of rocks or lava-beds or alkali or altitude or lack of rain are unfit for the plow ; but they afford much of the finest grazing country in the world, much valuable timber, and mineral wealth which is enormous. Useless land, though much in the aggregate, is far less than is commonly supposed, and, in comparison with wealth- producing lands, is almost insignificant The vast region east of the Rocky Mountains, though once the home of the " Great American Desert," really contains very little useless land. We have all heard of the " Bad Lands " of Dakota, but they comprise only about 75,000 acres out of 94,528,000 in the territory, and even these lands are an excellent stock-range. Mr. E. V. Smalley says : 1 The areas of the States given in the Ninth Census have been recomputed for the Tenth. 1 6 WESTERN SUPREMACY. " Cattle come out of the Bad Lands in the spring as fat as though they had been stall-fed all winter." * The United States Surveyor-General says : " The proportion of waste land in the territory (Dakota), owing to the absence of swamps, mountain ranges, overflowed and sandy tracts, is less than in any other state or territory in the Union." There are 20,000 square miles of " Bad Lands " in North-western Nebraska, rich in wonderful fossils, but economically worthless. It is often said thai the Kansas lands near the Colorado border are alkaline ; but Professor Mudge, State Geologist, says that, in fifteen years of exploration, he has found but two springs con- taining alkalies, and has never seen ten acres of land in one place which has been injured by it. There is probably as little waste land in Kansas as in Illinois. The " Staked Plain " of Texas is sometimes spoken of as a desert ; but a Texan writer, who has lived there for years, says of it : " While it is true that this vast territory which we are describing is mainly a grazing country, it is also true that it abounds in fertile valleys and rich locations of large extent, which are as well watered and as fertile as any in the nation." That portion of the " Staked Plain " which is mountainous is rich in minerals. Driven from the plains east of the Rocky Mountains, the " Great American Desert " seems to have become a fugitive and vagabond on the face of the earth. It was located for a time by the map makers in Utah, but being persecuted there, it fled to Arizona and Nevada. I do not mean to imply that there are no waste lands in Utah. Portions of the territory are as worthless as some of its 1 The Century, for August, 1882. WESTERN SUPREMACY. I 7 people. There are some deserts, one west of the Great Salt Lake, which contains several thousand square miles ; but the Surveyor-General of the Territory says : " Notwith- standing the opinion of many who deem our lands 'arid, desert, and worthless,' these same lands, under proper tillage, produce forty to fifty bushels of wheat, seventy to eighty bushels of oats and barley, from two hundred to four hundred bushels of potatoes to the acre, and fruits and vegetables equal to any other state or territory in quantity and quality." There are vast tracts which can- not be irrigated, but it has been discovered that by deep plowing, these same lands, without artificial moisture, can be made to produce bountifully. The culture of these high lands was, the past year, thoroughly successful. Arizona has been considered a waste, and undoubtedly much land there is arid ; but, on the other hand, there is much also which is wealth-producing. Gen. J. C. Fremont, who, as Governor of the Territory for several years, had exceptional facilities for gaining information, in his official report in 1878, said: "So far as my present knowledge goes, the grazing and farming lands comprehend an area equal to that of the State of New York." And a writer in Harper's Magazine 'for March, 1883, says : " It is estimated by competent authority that with irrigation, thirty-seven per cent can be redeemed for agriculture, and sixty per cent, for pasturage." l Certain it is that when the Spaniards first visited the territory, in 1526, they found ruins of cities and irrigating canals, which indicated that 1 From all the information I can gather, this latter estimate seems to me too large. In my computation of the valuable lands of the West, page 21, I have called 55,000 square miles in Arizona — about one-half of the territory — worthless. 1 8 WESTERN SUPREMACY. it was once densely populated by a civilized race which subsisted by agriculture. There is more barren land in Nevada than in any other state or territory of the West. The wealth of the state is not agricultural or pastoral, but mineral. Nevertheless the Surveyor-General of the State says : "In our sage-brush lands, alfalfa, the cereals, and all vegetables flourish in profusion where water can be obtained, and the State is speedily becoming one of the great stock-raising States of the Union." A good authority estimates that eventu- ally one-half of the State can be made valuable. The area in which occur, here and there, most of the worthless lands of the West, is pyramidal in shape, the base extending along the Mexican line into Texas, and the apex being found in the northern part of Idaho. That is, the proportion of useless lands decreases as you go north, until it seems to disappear entirely before reaching the Northern Pacific Railway. Mr. E. V. Smalley, who, in the summer of 1882, traveled the line of that road before its completion, writes :l "The whole country traversed through the northern tier of territories, from Eastern Dakota to Washington, is a habitable region. For the entire distance every square mile of the country is valuable either for farming, stock-raising, or timber- cutting. There is absolutely no waste land between th well-settled region of Dakota and the new wheat region of Washington Territory. Even on the tops of the Rocky Mountains there is good pasturage ; and the vast timber belt enveloping Clark's Fork and Lake Pend d'Oreille, and the ranges of the Cabinet and Cosur d'Alene Moun- tains is more valuable than an equal extent of arable land." 1 The Century Magazine for October, 1882. WESTERN SURPEMACY. 19 Comparatively little of the Rocky Mountain region has been surveyed. In the absence of exact knowledge, therefore, we must rely on the estimates of Surveyor- Generals, Governors, and others who have had oppor- tunities to form intelligent opinions concerning the avail- able lands of the West. In some cases official reports of surveys have afforded accurate information ; but in most it has been necessary to rely on estimates which pretend to be only approximately correct. I believe they are temperate, and will prove to be rather under than over the truth. According to these estimates, the region west of the Mississippi embraces 785,000 square miles of arable lands, 645,000 of grazing lands, 260,000 of timber lands, and 425,000 square miles which are useless, except so far as they are mineral lands. In weighing these figures several considerations should be borne in mind. 1. Generally speaking, those best acquainted with the West make the largest estimates of its resources and have the most faith in its future. 2. Land often appears worthless which experiment proves to be fertile. For instance, the ;' Great Columbia Plains" of Eastern Washington. The soil, which varies from one foot to twenty feet in depth, is, except in the bottom lands, a very light-colored loam, containing an unusually large percentage of alkalies and fixed acids. A few years ago, sowing wheat on that soil would have been deemed throwing it away ; but the experiment resulted in a revelation, viz., that these 14,000,000 acres of peculiar soil are probably the best wheat fields in all the world. Other illustrations equally striking might be given. Rev. A. Blanchard, Home Missionary Superintendent for East Wyoming and Colorado, writes : " Nothing is more 20 WESTERN SUPREMACY. surprising than the material for supporting a population which continues to be developed in all this region of mountain and plain, which, twenty years ago, was con- sidered an inhospitable desert, capable of supporting nothing but Indians." 3. Barren lands are often rendered fruitful. Water is all that is needed to make most of our western " deserts" blossom as the rose. In 1882 twelve Artesian wells were sunk in Tulare County, California, with astonishing results. They were found to flow from 200,000 to 1,500,- ooo gallons daily ; and where once were barren plains, the fields are a succession of vineyards, orchards, and wheat fields. Since then many of these wells have been sunk in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. Moreover, the rainfall seems to be increasing with the cultivation of the soil. It is also worthy of note that what rain there is usually falls in those months when it is most needed, and that there is little or none during harvest. Oftentimes all that a sterile soil needs is treatment with some mineral which Nature has deposited near by. 4. The arable lands in the Rocky Mountains are mainly in valleys, which, like basins, have gathered the detritus of the mountains for ages. The soil is, there- fore, very deep and strong, yielding much more than the same area in the East ; and in the South-west two crops a year from the same soil are very common, so that this land is equal to twice or three times the same area in the East. 5. The above estimate of arable lands in the West does not include the timber lands, a large proportion of which is of the finest quality. Of the 260,000 square miles of timber, 45,000 are in Texas, 26,000 in Arkansas, WESTERN SUPREMACY. 21 and 25,000 in Minnesota. Nearly one-half of the whole is in the Mississippi valley, and a good deal of the remainder is on fine soil, so that it is reasonable to infer that 100,000 square miles, or more, of this timber land would be arable, if cleared. Moreover, much of the 645,000 square miles of grazing land will prove to be arable. We may, therefore, expect the arable lands of the West ultimately to reach 900,000 square miles, and perhaps 1,000,000. 6. A considerable portion of the 854,865 square miles east of the Mississippi is not arable. In New England, New York, and Pennsylvania there are 94,500 square miles of unimproved lands.1 It is a fair infer- ence that in the old states, where land has long been in demand, so much would not remain unimproved unless generally incapable of improvement. Throughout the many mountain ranges of the entire Appalachian system there is much waste land and more that is not arable. In the absence of any exact data, it would seem, from the facts just given, that there must be not less than 50,000 or 60,000 square miles of waste land east of the Mississippi, and twice as much that is not fit for the plow. This reduces the arable lands of the East to about 700,000 square miles as against 785,000 in the West, with the probable eventual addition to the latter of one or two hundred thousand more. For every acre in the East, bad as well as good, there is another in the West capable of producing food ; and, in addition, a timber area as vast as all New England, New York, Pennsylvania, West *New England has 28,468 sq. miles not in farms, 41,500 unimproved New York „ 10,402,, ,, ,, ,, ,, 29,000 ,, Pennsylvania „ 13,952 ,, „ „ „ „ 24,000 „ 22 WESTERN SUPREMACY. Virginia, Ohio and Indiana. And this, be it remembered, does not include the magnificent timber lands of Alaska, which William H. Seward said would one day make that 'territory the ship-yard of the world. And in addition to all this, the West has grazing lands 50,000 square miles broader than the total area of all the states east of the Mississippi not above enumerated. In 1880 there were in the West 61,211,000 head of live stock; and those vast plains are capable of sustaining several times that number. The West, therefore, has 1,690,000 square miles of useful land against 800,000 in the East — more than twice as much. Nor have we finished our inventory of western wealth. Its mineral resources are simply inexhaustible. The precious metals have been found in most of the states and territories of our Western Empire. From the discovery of gold to June 3oth, 1881, California has produced $1,170,000,000 of that metal. The annual product is now from eighteen to twenty-five millions. From 1863 to 1880, Idaho produced £90,000,000 of gold and silver, and Montana from 1861 to 1879, not less than £162, 000,000. In twenty years Nevada produced §448,545,000 of the precious metals. The production of Colorado, during the twenty-four years preceding 1883, was 5167,000,000. Her out-put for 1882 was #27,000,000. In wealth-producing power a single rich mine represents a great area of arable land. For instance the Comstock Lode, 1877, produced $37,062,252. Those twelve insignificant looking holes in the side of the mountain yielded more wealth that year than 3,890,000 acres planted to corn the same year. That is those few square rods on the surface in Nevada WESTERN SUPREMACY. 23 were as large as all the corn fields of New England, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota collectively. Rocky Mountain wealth, penetrating thousands of feet into the earth, compensates for large areas of barren surface. The agricultural resources of a country do not now, as formerly, determine its possible population. To-day, easy transportation makes regions populous and wealthy which once were uninhabitable. Even if a blade of grass could not be made to grow in all the Rocky Mountain States, that region could sustain 100,000,000 souls, provided it has sufficient mineral wealth to exchange for the produce of the Mississippi valley. Quartz mines have been known in the Rockies for years, which could not be worked without heavy machinery. The inner chambers of God's great granite safes, where the silver and gold have been stored for ages to enrich this generation, are fastened with time locks, set for the advent of the railway. The projection of railway systems into the mountains will rapidly develop these mines. For the year ending May 3ist, 1880, the United States produced 55 tons 7 24 pounds (avoirdupois) of gold, and 1,090 tons 398 pounds of silver. "These huge figures may be better grasped, perhaps, by con- sidering that the gold represents five ordinary car-loads, while a train of 109 fre ght cats of the usual capacity would be required to transport the silver.1 But the precious metals constitute only a small part of the mineral wealth of the West "An eminent metallurgist and scientist has recently estimated the entire mineral production of the region west of the Mississippi, for the year 1880, as worth $1,000,000,000, 1 Tenth Census. 24 WESTERN SUPREMACY. and has given the items on which his estimate is based." l This sum is equal to the value of five-elevenths of all our agricultural products for the same year. The West has upwards of 200,000 square miles of coal measure, thirty-eight times the area of all the coal fields of Great Britain. Excepting Minnesota, coal has been found in every state and territory west of the Mississippi. And not one is without iron. California has superior ores. The iron of Oregon is equal to the very best Swedish and Russian metal. Wyoming has immense deposits. The supply of Utah is enormous. It is found in some form in every county of Missouri. Iron Mountain and Pilot Knob are estimated to contain 500,000,000 tons of the finest ore. There are great masses of iron in Texas, probably equal in quantity and quality to any deposits in the world. Lead is found in all the states and territories of the West, except Minnesota, Nebraska, and the Indian Territory. In many of them the ores are rich and abundant. The lead-producing area in Missouri is over 5,000 square miles. The product of that state in 1877 was over 63,000,000 pounds. Nebraska and Kansas alone are without copper. Rich ores and native metal abound in what seem inexhaustible quantities. The deposits of salt are without computation. Besides salt springs and lakes, which yield great quantities, there are beds of unknown depth covering thousands of acres. Sulphur also is exceedingly abundant. In Idaho there is a mountain which is eighty-five per cent pure sulphur. A deposit in Louisiana, equally pure, is 112 feet thick. Nevada has borax enough to supply man- kind. In Wyoming there are lakes in which the deposits xOur Western Empire, p. 212. WESTERN SUPREMACY. 25 of sulphate of soda are from ten to fifteen feet in thick- ness, and almost chemically pure. Gypsum abounds. Texas has the largest deposits known in the world; "enough to supply the universe for centuries." The Colorado River of Texas cuts its way through mountains of solid marble. In many parts of the Rocky Mountains there are the finest building stones, granite, sandstone and marble, of all possible colors and shades, without end. It would be tiresome simply to enumerate the valuable minerals which swell the undeveloped wealth of the West. If recent reports are correct, it is not denied even tin, the world's supply of which has hitherto been so limited. Inconsiderable deposits have been found in several states and territories; but Prof. Bailey, United States Geologist for Montana, states that in the region of Harney's Peak, he has found tin-bearing rock that can be quarried from the surface, that there are veins measuring more than fifty feet in width which will average much better than those in Cornwall. He declares that there is enough to supply the world, and says that it is impossible to imagine this great body of ore ever being exhausted. If these statements are correct, the discovery is one of the most important of the century. The unrivaled resources of the West, together with the unequaled enterprise of her citizens, are a sure prophecy of superior wealth. Already have some of these young States outstripped older sisters at the East, as is seen by the following statement of wealth per caput according to the assessed valuation of property in 1880: — In South Carolina ... Suo In Kansas $161 ,, Illinois 255 ,, Minnesota 330 ,, Vermont 259 ,, Colorado 331 ,, Indiana 368 ,, Montana 475 ,, New York 53* ,, California 674 26 WESTERN SUPREMACY. The West is destined to surpass in agriculture, stock- raising, mining, and eventually in manufacturing. Already appears the superiority of her climate, which Montesquieu declares "is the most powerful of all empires, and gives guaranty alone of future development." Every advantage seems to be hers save only greater proximity to Europe, and if the East commands European commerce, the Golden Gate opens upon Asia, and is yet to receive "the wealth of Ormus and of Ind," and send her argosies to all the ports of the broad Pacific. Beyond a peradventure, the West is to dominate the East. With more than twice the room and resources of the East, the West will have probably twice the population and wealth of the East, together with the superior power and influence which, under popular government, accom- pany them. The West will elect the executive and control legislation. When the center of population crosses the Mississippi, the West will have a majority in the lower House, and sooner or later the partition of her great territories, and probably some of the States, will give to the West the control of the Senate. When Texas is as densely peopled as New England, it is hardly to be supposed her millions will be content to see the 62,000 square miles east of the Hudson send twelve senators to the seat of government, while her territory of 262,000 sends only two. The West will direct the policy of the Government, and by virtue of her preponderating popu- lation and influence will determine our national character, and, therefore, destiny. Since prehistoric times populations have moved steadily westward, as De Tocqueville said, "as if driven by the mighty hand of God." And following their migrations, THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. 2"J the course of empire, which Bishop Berkeley sang, has westward taken its way. The world's scepter passed from Persia to Greece, from Greece to Italy, from Italy to Great Britain, and from Great Britain the scepter is to- day departing. It is passing on to "Greater Britain," to our mighty West, there to remain, for there is no further West; beyond is the Orient. Like the star in the East which guided the three kings with their treasures westward until at length it stood still over the cradle of the young Christ, so the star of empire, rising in the East, has ever beckoned the wealth and power of the nations westward, until to-day it stands still over the cradle of the young empire of the West, to which the nations are bringing their offerings. The West is to-day an infant, but shall one day be a giant, in each of whose limbs shall unite the strength of many nations. CHAPTER III. THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. THOMAS CARLYLE once said to an American : " Ye may boast o' yer dimocracy, or any ither 'cracy, or any kind o' poleetical roobish ; but the reason why yer laboring folk are so happy is thoth ye have a vost dealo' land for a verra few people" Carlyle was not the man to take an unpre- judiced view of republican institutions ; but he was not mistaken in finding great significance in the fact that heretofore our land has been vastly greater than its population. The rapid accumulation of our wealth, our comparative immunity from the consequences of un- 28 THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. scientific legislation, our financial elasticity, our high wages, the general welfare and contentment of the people hitherto have all been due, in very large measure, to an abundance of cheap land. When the supply is exhausted, we shall enter upon a new era, and shall more rapidly approximate European conditions of life. The gravity of the change was clearly foreseen by Lord Macaulay, and expressed in his well-known letter to Hon. H. S. Randall, in 1857 — a letter which General Garfield said startled him " like an alarm bell in the night." "Your fate," says Macaulay, " I believe to be certain, though it is deferred by a phy- sical cause. As long as you have a boundless extent of fertile and unoccupied land, your laboring population will be far more at ease than the laboring population of the Old World. . . . But the time will come when New England will be as thickly peopled as Old England Wages will be as low, and will fluctuate as much with you as with us. You will have your Manchesters and Birminghams. And in those Manchesters and Birming- hams hundreds of thousands of artisans will assuredly be some time out of work. Then your institutions will be fairly brought to the test. . . . Through such seasons the United States will have to pass in the course of the next century, if not of this. I wish you a good deliverance. But my reason and my wishes are at war, and I cannot help forboding the worst." What is the extent of these public lands whose oc- cupation means so much ? The public domain west of the Mississippi, not including Alaska, is estimated to have been, in 1880, 880,787,746 acres.1 This includes land 1 The following table, showing the location of public lands, is compiled from " Spaulding on Public Lands," pp. 6, 7. THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. 29 necessary to fill railroad grants, estimated at 110,000,000 acres, also private land claims estimated l at 80,000,000 acres, together with military and Indian reservations estimated at 157,356,952 acres. Supposing all of the military* and Indian reservations to revert to the public domain save 57,000,000 acres, there remained of the public lands west of the Mississippi, in 1880, yet to be disposed of, about 633,787,746 acres. This seems an almost inexhaustible supply, but we must remember the magnitude of the demand. In 1881, the Government parted with 10,893,397 acres; in 1882, 14,309,166; in 1883, 19,430,032; and in 1884, 27,531,170 — a slice con- siderably larger than the State of Ohio, in a single year, and a total in the four years of 72,163,765 acres, leaving Surveyed and Unsurveyed Unsold Acres. Acres. Total. Arizona 1,561,231 67,098,366 68,659,597 Arkansas 4,620,120 4,620,120 California 25,250,680 48,643,592 73,894,272 Colorado 20,489,312 40,657,670 61,146,982 Dakota 12,225,492 71,422,103 83,647,595 Idaho 3,925»237 47>739,368 51,664,605 Indian Territory 17,150,250 17,150,250 Kansas 28,049.731 28,049,731 Louisiana 2,130,000 2,130,000 Minnesota 13,383,813 13»5IO,423 26,894,236 Missouri 1,000,000 1,000,000 Montana 5,779)452 80,651,676 86,431,128 Nebraska 23,958,652 7,052,207 31,010,859 Nevada 8,337,671 58,436,598 66,774,269 New Mexico 6,042,409 67,024,990 73,067,399 Oregon 12,906,700 37,908,340 50,815,040 Utah 5,685,054 44,282,680 49,967,734 Washington 9,088,338 28,836,985 37>925,323 Wyoming 5,645,121 53,381,485 59,026,606 Public Land strip..... 6,912,000 6,912,000 880,787,746 Grand total 1 George W. Spaulding. 30 THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. in the hands of the Government at the present time about 561,623,981 acres. Not only is the amount an- nually disposed of enormous, but, as we have seen, it is very rapidly increasing. Even if the increase should cease, the demand for 1884, steadily continued, would exhaust the supply in twenty years. It must not be forgotten that these 561,000,000 acres include the great mountain ranges, and all the barren lands. Only a comparatively small portion is arable. The farming lands of the West, therefore, will all be taken before the close of this century. And under private ownership they will appreciate in value with the increase of population. Senator Wade, of Ohio, predicted, in the United States Senate, some twenty years ago, that, by 1900, every acre of good agricultural land in the Union would be worth at least fifty dollars. However that may be, it is certain our wide domain will soon cease to palliate popular discontent, because it will soon be beyond the reach of the poor. But the settlement of the public lands has a further and even deeper significance. The first permanent settlors, as we have seen in the preceding chapter, im- press their character on the community and common- wealth for generations and centuries; and this abiding stamp is to be given to the great West in the course of the next fifteen or twenty years. True, the land is not settled as rapidly as it is disposed of by the Government. Many acres have passed into the hands of wealthy syndicates or individual capitalists, and are held by them for a rise in value; but this can delay actual settlement for a short time only, and does not modify the general statement that the great West is to be settled by this generation. Robert Gififen, President of the London THE EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. 31 Statistical Society, in an address on " World Crowding," l after following several lines of reasoning to the same con- clusion, says : " Whatever way we may look at the matter, then, it seems certain that, in twenty-five years' time, and probably before that date, the limitation of area in the United States will be felt. There will be no longer vast tracts of virgin land for the settler. The whole available area will be peopled agriculturally, as the Eastern States are now peopled." Suppose the entire region west of the Mississippi — not excepting bald mountains and alkaline deserts — were divided into townships six miles square. From 1870 to 1880 the transmississippi popu- lation increased a little more than sixty-one per cent.2 If that ratio of increase is sustained to the close of the century (and there is abundant reason to believe that it will rise), in 1900 there will be a population of 30,165,000 — sufficient, if it were evenly distributed, to place 530 souls in every township west of the great river. The natural distribution of such a population would manifestly result in the settlement of all the habitable regions. Consider the location of the unoccupied land. It is not a vast island, like Australia, separated by thousands of miles from its sources of population. It lies close to one of the greatest peoples of the earth; and not on our north or south, but on our west, which is important, because great migrations move along lines of latitude. Moreover, this great territory is gridironed with trans- 1 "Topics of the Time." Vol. I., No. I, p. 36. 2 During the same period the average per cent, of increase of population in all the states of the Union was 29 — in the territories, 77. Idaho increased 117 per cent., Wyoming, 127, Washington, 213, Arizona, 318, Dakota, 853. 32 THK EXHAUSTION OF THE PUBLIC LANDS. continental railways. Every circumstance favors its rapid occupation. We must note, also, the order of settlement In the Middle States the farms were first taken, then the town sprung up to supply their wants, and at length the railway connected it with the world ; but in the West the order is reversed — first the railroad, then the town, then the farms. Settlement is, consequently, much more rapid, and the city stamps the country, instead of the country stamping the city. It is the cities and towns which will frame state constitutions, make laws, create public opinion, establish social usages, and fix standards of morals in the West. The character of the West, will, therefore, be substantially determined some time before the land is all occupied. In 1880, fifty-three per cent, of our national domain (not including Alaska) contained only six per cent, of our population. That is, one-half of our territory was, for the most part, uninhabited. The character of this vast region, equal in area to Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy, Austria, Germany, Norway and Sweden, together with a dozen of the smaller European states, is to be determined during the last twenty years of the century. Suppose all of Western Europe were practically unin- habited, that to-day the pioneer were pitching his tent by the Thames and the Seine, and building his log cabin on the banks of the Tiber. He takes with him not the rude implements of centuries ago, but the locomotive, the telegraph, the steam-press, and all the swift appliances of modern civilization. Suppose the countries named above were all to be settled in twenty years ; that, instead of the slow evolutions of many centuries, their polictical, social, THE ANGLO-SAXON AND THE WORLDS FUTURE. 33 religious, and educational institutions were to be deter- mined by one generation ; that from this one generation were to spring a civilization, like Minerva from the head of Jupiter, full-grown and fully equipped. What a period in the world's history it would be, unparalleled and tremendous ! Yet such a Europe is being created by this generation west of the Mississippi. And within the bosom of these few years is folded not only the future of the mighty West, but the nation's destiny; for, as we have seen, the West is to dominate the East CHAPTER IV. THE ANGLO-SAXON AND THE WORLD'S FUTURE.1 EVERY race which has deeply impressed itself on the human family has been the representative of some great idea — one or more — which has given di